AGP Executive Report

Protected Agriculture Investment: Saudi Arabia’s Jazan Region has launched a SAR600m ($160m) tropical fruits and greenhouse project, using protected farming and “smart” greenhouse tech to boost food security and Vision 2030 diversification. Water & Food Security Risk: A new FAO report warns that shocks—from conflict to extreme weather—are hitting food and farm markets more often, but smarter policy can reduce how long export disruptions and price spikes last. Macroeconomy Meets Farm Costs: The ADB says Pakistan’s FY26 growth was 3.7% (with modest agriculture gains) but warns FY27 growth will slow to 3.7% as energy costs rise and Middle East spillovers keep inflation elevated—pressuring food affordability. Regional Trade & Agriculture Cooperation: Pakistan and Croatia agreed to deepen ties across trade, investment, agriculture research, and connectivity, including talks on avoiding double taxation. Market Pulse: ICE cotton futures slipped from a one-month high on profit-taking and a stronger US dollar, though crude oil strength and weather concerns limited the fall.

Fertiliser & inputs under strain: Phosphate supplies are being questioned as Middle East conflict disrupts global fertiliser flows, with traders warning the market may not “go back to normal” and growers could cut application if prices stay extreme. Energy-to-food pressure: Oil jumped after renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and talk of the ceasefire being “over,” reviving fears for Strait of Hormuz shipping—an issue that can quickly feed into higher fuel and fertiliser costs for farmers. Water access in the West Bank: Reports describe Israeli restrictions and damage to irrigation pipelines leaving Palestinian farms without water for days, threatening banana, herb and melon production. Regional farm economics: Pakistan’s water crisis is framed as mismanagement rather than India’s actions, while U.S. policy news highlights how fertilizer production funding and farm subsidies are reshaping input costs and farm income. Egypt water heritage: Egypt plans a new irrigation museum to document water management history and highlight irrigation’s role in agricultural development.

Fertiliser & Food Security Finance: J.P. Morgan has been tapped to arrange development financing for Iraq’s US$1.6bn urea plant in Basra, aimed at cutting import dependence and easing domestic price pressure ahead of planned 2027 construction and 2030 operations. Gulf Agribusiness & Inputs: Oman’s OMIFCO shares jumped nearly 20% at debut on the Muscat Stock Exchange, underscoring investor appetite for regional ammonia/urea capacity even as Gulf markets soften. Water Politics: Israel is reportedly refusing to renew its water agreement with Jordan, raising fresh supply-bargaining fears for Amman and reviving talk of a UAE-brokered trilateral water push. Qatar Dates Season: Qatar’s first locally produced fresh dates have started hitting Al Wakrah and Al Sailiya markets, with output expected to rise sharply after mid-July. Climate Pressure on Farming Jobs: In the Philippines, unemployment rose to 4.8% in May, with agriculture and forestry among the biggest job-loss drivers, linked to El Niño and Middle East-linked shocks. Aquaculture Push: Türkiye targets 750,000 tons of aquaculture output and $3bn in seafood exports by 2028, building on record 2025 production. Energy Disruption Risk: Central Asia’s fuel squeeze is spilling into winter planning as Russia-linked shortages tighten supplies for farms and industry.

Trade & Investment: Jordan and the UK renewed their push to deepen economic ties, with Jordan’s exports to the UK up 88% to $37.2m in early 2026 and a narrower trade deficit after UK imports fell 17%. Agri-energy Finance: Sinosure and BBVA-backed financing is supporting a 55MW solar project in Türkiye for Yayla Agro Gıda, linking renewable power to food-sector operations. Solar & Community Resilience: Rwanga Foundation highlights a shift from short-term aid to local infrastructure and resilience projects in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, aiming to help communities build self-sufficiency. Market Pressure from Middle East Conflict: Oil prices jumped after renewed Strait of Hormuz attacks and the U.S. ended an Iran sanction waiver, a reminder of how regional security shocks can quickly feed into energy and farm input costs. Food Supply Costs: Pakistani mango imports into Oman are getting pricier as shipping costs and routing changes raise container expenses, with importers absorbing much of the hit. Labour Protections: Kenya and Saudi Arabia signed a recruitment agreement to strengthen safeguards for Kenyan migrant workers, addressing long-running abuse and wage-payment complaints that also affect Gulf-based food and farm labor supply chains.

Fertilizer & food security finance: KEPPT has hired J.P. Morgan to arrange development financing for a $1.6bn urea plant in Basra, Iraq, targeting 1.15m tonnes/year and aiming to cut reliance on imports and ease domestic price pressure, with construction due to start in 2027 and operations in 2030. Input supply & farming resilience: Türkiye’s seed authority says the country can meet all cereal seed needs domestically if imports are disrupted, with TIGEM producing a major share of certified cereal and forage seeds through a nationwide dealer network. Wildlife recovery with farm links: Turkey reports 2,200+ wild animals rehabilitated and released in the first half of 2026, supported by veterinary partnerships and national rescue centers—an indirect boost for healthier rural ecosystems. Regional energy shock ripple: A Scottish green chemicals firm warns that Hormuz Strait disruptions hit more than fuel prices, stressing petrochemical feedstock dependence that can spill into everyday goods and agriculture-linked supply chains. Trade & diplomacy backdrop: India and Indonesia reaffirm support for resolving Middle East conflicts through dialogue and diplomacy, with Modi reiterating India’s backing for a two-state solution. Oman clean-energy manufacturing: United Solar closes $1.6bn funding for a Sohar polysilicon project, reinforcing the region’s push to build solar supply chains.

Wheat & Grain Signals: CBOT wheat futures edged higher after USDA acreage support, while market chatter points to shifting supply expectations and continued sensitivity to export demand. Coffee Shockwaves: Coffee prices jumped to multi-month highs as Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest lagged (about half complete by July 1) and mid-July rain risks threaten crop quality, with inventories also trending lower. Fertilizer & Food Security: Spain launched a State Fertilizer Plan aimed at boosting domestic production, cutting dependence, and supporting farmers via precision agriculture—an approach many Middle East producers watch closely as input security stays political. Egypt-UK Investment Push: Egypt’s investment chief met the UK ambassador to expand trade and attract new British investment, including projects tied to the Suez Canal Economic Zone—relevant for agribusiness supply chains. Water & Agriculture Resilience: A new focus on water scarcity and heat stress is emerging across the region’s food systems, with desalination and water management framed as core agricultural risk controls. Lebanon Border Claims: Lebanese Christian border villages rejected Netanyahu’s annexation claims, underscoring how conflict narratives can spill into land and farming stability.

Water Stress: Colorado River headwaters are drying fast, shrinking a lifeline for 35M people and 5M acres of farmland across the Southwest as reservoirs like Lake Mead and Powell fall to critical levels. Fertiliser Supply & Prices: With Strait of Hormuz disruption easing, 15 ships carrying urea, DAP and sulphur crossed to rebuild India’s fertiliser stocks, while global food prices edged down as the war-risk premium faded. Greenhouse Tech for Food Security: ClearVue says Qatar University will run independent trials of its transparent solar greenhouse glass to boost renewable power and productivity for Qatar’s push to grow more vegetables locally. Climate & Farm Losses: Türkiye reports nearly 90,000 hectares of farmland damaged in Jan–Jun 2026 from floods, frost, hail, storms and landslides, warning that low insurance uptake leaves producers exposed. Rice Trade Shifts: Vietnam’s rice exports to China topped 1M tonnes in H1 2026, and shipments to Iraq surged, even as average export prices softened. Organic vs Synthetic Fertiliser: Organic farmers argue they’re less hit by synthetic fertiliser price spikes tied to Middle East energy shocks, urging policy to back alternatives. Agri-Exports Logistics: Malaysia explores a land-and-rail route to China for durians to cut costly air freight and ease a seasonal glut. Egypt Agribusiness IPO: Qalaa Holdings plans to proceed with Dina Farms’ IPO on Egypt’s EGX in 2027, betting on dairy scale and market share. Aquaculture Standards: The Global Seafood Alliance promotes BAP-certified seafood via a chef-focused campaign aimed at improving responsible sourcing awareness.

Food Security Diplomacy: Qatar is positioning itself as a reliable food-security partner for Ukrainian grain exporters, valuing dependable supply chains and long-term deals over lowest-price bidding. Trade & Exports: Morocco showcased agricultural cooperation and small-producer market access at Abu Dhabi Global Food Week, highlighting its cooperative-driven export push. Agriculture Finance: The Philippines’ Department of Agriculture is seeking a 2027 budget increase to strengthen long-term food security, but faces a tight fiscal ceiling that could cut the plan. Climate Risk for Farming: Israel’s meteorological service warns El Niño could bring severe flooding, extreme winds and hail, raising risks for crops and rural infrastructure. Water & Logistics Under Pressure: With Russian attacks threatening Ukraine’s Black Sea grain routes, monthly shipments could drop sharply—an issue that can ripple into Middle East import costs. Regional Conflict & Rural Livelihoods: Israeli raids in the West Bank included confiscation of an agricultural tractor used for waste collection, underscoring how insecurity disrupts daily farm operations. Market Access Tension: Iran-US rhetoric around food purchases and frozen funds continues to inflame expectations for agricultural trade flows.

Turkey Agriculture Boom: Türkiye’s agricultural output hit a record $83.2bn in 2025, up from $72.9bn in 2023, with the country ranking first in Europe and seventh globally by value. Afghanistan Fruit Exports: Kandahar exported 182,381 metric tons of fresh and dried fruit worth $428.86m over the past year, shipping pomegranates, grapes, figs and raisins to markets including China, India, Qatar, the UAE, Türkiye and Iraq. Jordan Trade Paperwork Boost: Jordan’s Amman Chamber of Commerce certificates of origin covered exports worth about JD 768m in H1 2026 (+25.2%), with agricultural products at JD 103m and Iraq the top destination by value. Pakistan–Türkiye Deal Push: Pakistan’s FM Ishaq Dar urged Turkish investment in energy, mining, power, IT, manufacturing, agriculture, logistics, tourism and defence as both sides target $5bn trade. Gaza Ceasefire Stalls: Residents describe ongoing humanitarian hardship and damaged farmland as the Gaza ceasefire remains unfulfilled. Monsoon Risk for Rice: India’s summer rice sowing fell nearly 23% year-on-year amid weak monsoon signals, with diesel and fertilizer costs adding pressure. Smart Farming in Saudi Arabia: AI is being used to boost mango farm flowering rates to 98%, pointing to faster, data-led orchard management. Local Coffee Circular Economy (Philippines): Baguio City plans to plant 1,000 Arabica seedlings and link hotel kitchen waste composting to farmers’ crop production.

Food-price pressure in the Gulf: FAO says global food prices rose 2.2% year-on-year in June, with Middle East conflict and energy costs still feeding uncertainty. Climate risk for imports: A new analysis warns El Niño can tighten global grain and oil supplies, raising food-price shocks for Gulf states that import most of their food. Egypt farm finance boost: Egypt’s Agricultural Development Programme plans to double financing to EGP 10bn and expand local and foreign-currency lending to back investment and exports. Fertilizer supply anxiety: A U.S. report highlights how fertilizer price spikes from Iran-linked disruptions can hit farm economics, while a separate U.S. lab story points to turning wastewater into nitrogen fertilizer. Water stress spotlight: A data roundup ranks Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt among the most water-stressed countries—an agriculture warning sign for the region. Iran-Iraq trade: Iran exported $214.7m in goods to Iraq via Mehran in Q1, including agricultural products, as transit volumes surged. West Bank farm losses: Palestinian officials accuse settlers of burning agricultural land, uprooting olive trees and seizing water resources, calling for urgent international protection.

Humanitarian Strain in Gaza: With the war now 1,000 days old, Palestinians say a ceasefire hasn’t eased shortages of food and clean water, as families queue for essentials and reconstruction stalls. Militant Threat in Iraq: Iraqi security forces launched a large manhunt after an abduction near Kirkuk’s Taza Khurmatu, with suspected ISIS remnants blamed in a volatile corridor that includes agricultural valleys. West Bank Land and Food Security Pressure: Reuters reports Israeli settlers seizing an unfinished Palestinian home in the occupied West Bank, highlighting how settlement expansion and violence can disrupt rural livelihoods and housing. EU Food-Trade Finance Move: The EU is reportedly considering reconnecting Russia’s agricultural bank to SWIFT to keep food and agriculture payments flowing, aiming to reduce delays and costs tied to sanctions. Pakistan–Türkiye Investment Push (Agri Included): PM Shehbaz Sharif invited Turkish firms to expand investment in Pakistan, explicitly listing agriculture among priority sectors during Istanbul meetings. Iran–US Tensions With Trade Implications: Iran’s parliament speaker said the US must accept “existing realities” after recent conflict, while also criticizing US claims about Iran’s economy and food needs. Women-Led Agribusiness in MENA-adjacent Markets: Meghalaya’s women-led GI pineapple enterprise surged revenue by selling premium organic produce domestically and abroad, a model relevant to regional value-chain efforts.

Digital Tax Push in Pakistan: Pakistan’s finance minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told Faisalabad businesses that a fully digitalised tax system is key to cut leakages and boost collection, while also noting exporter support and electricity tariff changes as the FY27-28 budget groundwork begins. Trade Pressure on Exports: Pakistan’s commerce ministry warned exports will keep suffering if incentives favor domestic industries over export sectors, citing US-Iran disruption that raised sea and air logistics costs via the Strait of Hormuz. Iran-US Food Claims Spark Pushback: Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf hit back at Trump’s claim Iran needs US corn, wheat and soybeans, pointing to US malnutrition and SNAP, as frozen-asset talks continue. Agriculture Under Conflict Strain: Israeli settler attacks in the West Bank damaged greenhouses and seized a key spring used by Bedouin herders, threatening farm and livestock livelihoods. Climate Finance for Water and Orchards: The Green Climate Fund approved $190M for Tajikistan, including water-saving tech, fruit-orchard support, and upgrades to drinking water, sewage, and irrigation networks. Fuel Price Relief in Pakistan: Pakistan cut petrol and diesel by Rs1.97 per litre, linking the move to easing crude fears after Hormuz reopening.

Fertilizer & food prices: UNCTAD warns that the Strait of Hormuz disruption has already stranded over 1,200 cargo vessels and will keep feeding into higher shipping costs, fertilizer prices and food security risks well beyond the conflict. Input-cost squeeze: A separate report links the Hormuz-linked fertilizer bottleneck to higher costs for farmers and suggests retail food impacts may show up later in the harvest cycle. World food trends: FAO says world food prices eased for a second month in June, with drops in sugar, cereals and dairy offsetting firmer meat and vegetable oils. Saudi ag value chain: Saudi Arabia’s fruit marketing service centres aim to cut post-harvest losses via washing, sorting, packing and refrigerated storage, strengthening farm-to-retail links. Water stress in farming regions: Colorado River headwaters are drying up, shrinking a lifeline for millions of people and farmland across the US Southwest. Gulf labor & agriculture links: Kenya’s Musalia Mudavadi begins talks in Saudi Arabia focused on protecting Kenyan migrant workers—key for rural livelihoods tied to remittances. Market signals: USDA data shows US cotton export sales weakening, with Upland bookings down sharply while Pima shipments rise. Local conservation: Maryland’s Talbot County farm conservation easement protects grain fields and buffers to filter nutrient runoff into waterways.

Gaza Agriculture Devastation: Gaza’s Chamber of Commerce says 1,000 days of war have nearly wiped out farming and food production, claiming 94% of agricultural assets are destroyed and fishing has collapsed by 96%, with GDP down 85–88% and recovery potentially taking decades. Turkey Food Transparency: Turkey’s Agriculture and Forestry Ministry made calorie counts mandatory for chain restaurants from early July, with ingredients and allergens required too (independent venues get later deadlines), aiming to improve consumer choice and health protections. FAO Drone Farming Boost (SVG): St. Vincent and the Grenadines is launching an FAO-funded geospatial agriculture and coastal risk project, including two agriculture-grade drones with multispectral sensors to speed up crop-health and pest monitoring. Smart Recycling Push (Bahrain): Bahrain is studying Saudi-style reverse vending machines that pay residents for plastic and aluminium returns, with legal and operational details still being worked out. Climate Resilience Research Gap (GCC): A Gulf-focused review warns that climate research in the region often misses “evidence-to-action” pathways, calling for stronger links between people, policy, and pricing. Irrigation Leadership (Kenya): Kenya’s irrigation authority chief says scaling irrigation needs more than engineering—strong leadership, stakeholder buy-in, and financing are key.

Lebanon War Costs: Lebanon’s economy and trade minister says Israel’s Lebanon war could top $8B, with about $2B in losses already since March, driven by factory closures, damage to agricultural land, job losses and a tourism slump, alongside a ~20% jump in consumer prices and a 20–25% drop in household consumption. Gaza Farm Damage: Reports highlight heavily destroyed agricultural lands in Gaza amid war and Israeli blockade, raising fresh concerns for food supply and recovery. Egg Price Scheme: US multistate attorneys general reached a settlement over an alleged egg price overcharging conspiracy involving Iowa’s Centrum Valley Farms, with more than 50M donated eggs and $3.3M proposed for court approval. Fertiliser Supply Pressure: Australia’s Dyno Nobel sold the Phosphate Hill MAP/DAP plant for $1, citing fertilizer-sector divestment and operational pressures, while noting government support tied to sulfur cost challenges linked to the US-Iran war. Saudi Rural Agri-Tourism: Saudi Arabia’s Al-Baha is licensing rural farms for tourism, with 30 licensed and more in process, aiming to blend countryside hospitality with agriculture.

US-Iran Talks on Hormuz: Vice President JD Vance says indirect technical talks in Qatar are “going well,” focused first on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz under a 14-point interim accord, while warning Washington won’t return to full combat unless there’s a clearly defined purpose. Food & Fertilizer Risk: Analysts note traffic through the strait has partially resumed, but weeks may be needed to ease inventory pressures—an issue that can quickly feed into fertilizer and food costs. Iran as a Buyer of US Ag: A market analyst says it’s still unclear whether Iran will actually buy US agricultural goods, with producers skeptical and commodity prices not yet fully pricing in any deal. Iraq Housing Land for Agriculture Inputs: Babil Province plans to ready 60,000+ residential land plots for distribution, with surplus land earmarked for solar power—relevant for rural energy reliability. Iraq/Iran Trade Signals: Reports say Iran has used frozen assets to buy US farm products, adding to uncertainty around future agricultural trade flows. India Corn Export Boost: India’s corn imports are set for a three-year high as record output and competitive pricing pull buyers, with freight costs after Iran-related disruptions helping demand. Ireland Machinery Demand: Ireland’s 2026 agricultural machinery market looks more upbeat than expected, led by grassland equipment sales, while tillage equipment remains pressured by low grain prices. UAE Agrifood Investment Move: Abu Dhabi’s BILDCO signed an MoU to acquire a 50% stake in AG Group, signaling continued consolidation in the region’s agri-food investment landscape.