AGP Executive Report

Wheat Security in Egypt: Egypt’s GASC has issued a wheat tender as supply-disruption worries linger, while FAO estimates put 2026 wheat output at 10.2m tonnes and state procurement at about 5m tonnes—helping cut imports to an estimated 12.5m tonnes. Iraq Agri Tech Push: Baghdad’s 17th Agricultural Week opened with a focus on mechanization, animal production and food processing, including a Saudi-backed plan to expand Iraq’s date palms from ~20m to 30m via tissue culture. Farmer Finance in Türkiye: Opposition New Party leader Özgür Özel pledged debt relief for farmers and purchase/price guarantees for tea and hazelnuts, aiming to close the gap between announced and paid producer prices. Food Prices in South Africa: Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation fell to 0.9% in July, easing pressure after cereal and meat price slowdowns. West Bank Farm Damage: Israeli raids and settler actions reportedly destroyed irrigation infrastructure and uprooted olive and grape trees, adding fresh strain to Palestinian agricultural livelihoods. Agri-Value Chains in Africa: South Sudan’s parliament approved a Saudi cooperation accord covering agriculture among other sectors, setting up direct investment pathways.

Iraq Farmer Support: Iraq approved about $267m in pending 2025 farmer payments, including $45m for Kurdistan, aiming to clear dues for nationwide agriculture. Displacement + Farm Resilience: A $10m UNDP–KOICA initiative will support sustainable resettlement for displaced Iraqis and returnees across Anbar, Kirkuk, Ninewa and Salah al-Din, including climate-resilient farm assistance for 168 farmers. Egypt Food Exports: Egypt shipped roughly 320,000 tonnes of food to 184 countries in two weeks, with sweet potatoes, onions and strawberries among top performers. Tunisia Olive Oil Boom: Tunisia’s olive oil exports rose 55% to 368,000 tonnes and $1.6bn in the first nine months of 2025/26, led by extra-virgin shipments. Regional Water Security: Egypt and Tanzania marked the inauguration of the $2.9bn Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (2,115MW), a major Nile-basin-linked infrastructure milestone for power and cooperation. Trade Shock Risk: US–Canada 50% tariffs are set to hit Canadian goods including seeds and agricultural products, raising cost pressure that can ripple into food supply chains. Climate Pressure on Farming: A new study reports global warming acceleration, with implications for heat and weather stress on agriculture across vulnerable regions.

Security & Borders: The IDF said it struck a “terrorist” in southern Syria preparing an IED attack on Israeli soldiers, after separate reports of an IDF drone strike injuring a person near Damascus and hitting a vehicle at a farm in Beit Jinn/Al-Ayn areas. Lebanon Toll & Rural Impact: Lebanon’s Health Ministry updated deaths from “Israeli” aggression since Oct 2023 to 8,915 martyrs (30,543 wounded), with the latest escalation (Mar 2–Aug 21, 2026) reaching 4,348 martyrs and 12,307 wounded, alongside reports of shelling, airstrikes, burning farmland, and home demolitions. Food & Fuel Pressure: Commentary links the Iran war to higher prices for basic goods and supply-chain disruption, while separate coverage highlights how fuel shocks tied to Hormuz tensions ripple into agriculture and transport costs. Agri-Adjacent Tech: Nigeria’s NIGCOMSAT moved forward on two next-gen satellites with Israel Aerospace Industries and Thales Alenia Space, aiming to expand connectivity that can support rural communications and logistics. Market Watch: A report projects the black soldier fly market could reach US$23.63bn by 2035, driven by sustainable feed and waste-to-protein demand.

Iraq Energy & Land Plans: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi says Iraq wants to boost oil exports via Turkish ports and raise its OPEC quota to 8–10m barrels/day in six years, while also pushing a $100bn development fund and fuel-saving reforms; he added that agricultural land plots are planned for engineers and veterinarians with structured loans. West Bank Settlement Pressure: Britain condemned an Israeli tender for 1,234 settlement units east of occupied Jerusalem and warned of sanctions, as UN chief António Guterres said the move threatens a viable Palestinian state—an issue that directly affects farming communities through land and access pressures. Kirkuk Power Fuel Shortage: In Iraq’s Kirkuk, residents in agricultural areas protested after private generators ran out of fuel, with kerosene prices spiking and disruptions hitting daily life and local production. Food Prices Under Strain: A new forecast warns super El Niño plus ongoing wars could lift global food prices, with fertilizer and grain supply shocks feeding into higher costs. Animal Health Watch: Farmers’ groups highlight bluetongue spread and vaccine supply constraints, urging orders and emergency support as outbreaks and drought pressures mount. Cybersecurity for Ag & Water: The US warned AI-assisted hackers are targeting industrial controllers used across water, energy, and agriculture, raising the risk of operational disruptions.

West Bank Settlement Push: Israeli authorities reopened the Kadim settlement near Jenin after a 20-year ban, with “pioneer families” returning under far-right officials—raising fresh fears for Palestinian livelihoods and nearby agricultural land. Settlement Expansion Tender: Israel opened tenders for 1,234 homes in the E1 area, a move condemned internationally as a step toward severing Palestinian territory and undermining a contiguous state. West Bank Violence & Land Access: A knife attack in the Jenin area ended with the attacker shot dead, while reports also highlight settler assaults and sieges that disrupt farming and daily movement. Agritech & Youth Skills: In Jammu and Kashmir, officials urged region-specific innovation in agriculture, unveiling AI and digital agriculture centers at SKUAST and launching a startup outreach programme. Egypt Solar for Water-Energy Use: Scatec completed the second phase of Egypt’s Obelisk solar-plus-battery project, and the company signals further large-scale investment tied to renewables, storage, and renewable-powered desalination. Trade & Food Supply Pressure: EU greenhouse vegetable imports rose sharply, with Morocco and Turkey expanding volumes into Europe—while Middle East tensions continue to feed broader food-price and logistics concerns.

West Bank Farm Attacks: Israeli settlers set fire to olive trees in Burqa village east of Ramallah and injured a Palestinian man working his land, with reports that attacks on farmers and crop destruction continue under Israeli force protection. Iraq Rural Livelihoods: Kirkuk’s Qarahanjir district launched a fig festival to spotlight local harvests, connect growers to new markets, and build rural tourism around the “black fig” crop. Qatar-Egypt Food Security Talks: Qatar and Egypt’s joint higher committee meeting in El Alamein reviewed cooperation in economy, investment, agriculture and food security, alongside regional de-escalation and Gaza-related positions. Gaza Education Collapse for Agriculture’s Future: UNICEF reports nearly 98% of Gaza school buildings damaged and hundreds of thousands of children out of in-person schooling for a third year, with major learning loss risks that will hit the next generation of farming and food systems. Coffee Supply Signals: Arabica coffee prices rose on consolidation and supply concerns tied to Brazil harvest pace, while robusta stayed pressured by higher inventories. Sugar Supply Pressure: Sugar prices rallied after India cut sugar import duties to allow up to 1MMT raw sugar tax-free until Oct 31, pointing to tighter global supplies. Water Stress Watch: Sudan’s Nile levels are declining in parts of the river system, affecting access to water for communities and schools—another reminder that irrigation reliability is under strain across the region.

Saudi–Zanzibar Investment Push: Saudi investors led by Tanzania’s ambassador visited Zanzibar to explore food security and energy opportunities, including interest in offshore agricultural land and sites for emergency petroleum reserves, with local officials pitching the blue economy and “halal tourism.” Fuel-Cost Relief for Fishing Fleets: Spain’s agriculture ministry approved first payments to fishing shipowners to offset diesel price spikes tied to Middle East conflict—3.21m euros to 3,798 shipowners nationwide and 682,858 euros to 682 Andalusian shipowners—calculated per vessel and days of activity. Fertiliser Worry for West Africa: A CropGPT analysis warns of potential fertiliser shortages for key crops like cocoa in 2027, linking risks to logistics strain from Hormuz disruptions and urging closer support for farmers. Cybersecurity for Water/Ag Control: US agencies warned hackers are using AI-generated code to target Siemens S7 controllers in water and critical infrastructure, raising concerns for rural systems that support agriculture. Gaza Farm Access: FAO reports only about 3% of Gaza’s agricultural land remains accessible and undamaged, deepening pressure on food supply.

Produce Theft in Israel: Border Police in central Israel seized 162 kg of suspected stolen avocados near Yesodot, detaining a suspect and highlighting farmers’ ongoing losses during harvest-ready periods. Fertilizer Supply Pressure: South Korea extended hoarding bans on urea and urea solution for two more months, easing stockpiling limits as China relaxes urea export controls—an input that also links to diesel emissions and farm fertilizer availability. Fertilizer Security vs Farmers (Pakistan): Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s urea sale restrictions faced backlash in Pakistan’s National Assembly, with critics warning “track and trade” controls could unfairly burden about 1.3 million farmers. Food Prices and Hunger Risk: Oregon’s food banks report surging demand as SNAP changes and higher grocery costs strain household food security. Middle East Shipping Shock: Attacks on grain shipping in the Azov and Black Sea cut over 97% of export capacity, pushing Middle East importers toward higher-cost suppliers. El Niño Oilseed Signal: Palm oil futures hit a 4½-month high as traders price potential El Niño production disruption, lifting edible-oil and biodiesel feedstock expectations. Agri-Industry Outlook: AGCO and CNH both reported weaker 2026 conditions in parts of Europe/Middle East/Africa, with inventory and production adjustments underway.

Black Sea Grain Disruption: Syria says 2026 wheat output is high enough to cut imports, but a new Tartus shipment raises questions about what “self-sufficiency” really means for the bread system. Fertilizer Cost Pressure: CoBank expects fertilizer prices to stay elevated through 2028 as Middle East supply and phosphate availability remain tight, squeezing farm margins. Grain Market Rally: Wheat prices jumped as Black Sea conflict disrupts grain flow, with knock-on risks for global supply chains. Iran–Gulf Trade Shock: The UAE announced an indefinite trade and financial embargo on Iran after reported missile attacks, a move analysts say could choke Iran’s access to imports and markets. Diesel Squeeze: U.S. diesel prices surged amid Iran-linked supply uncertainty, reinforcing how Middle East tensions can quickly hit farm input and transport costs. West Bank Raids Impact: Broad arrest raids and intensified attacks across the occupied West Bank and South Lebanon add instability for rural livelihoods and farming access. Turkey Jobs Snapshot: Türkiye’s unemployment fell to 7.9% in Q2, while agriculture added jobs—small relief amid wider regional uncertainty.

Pistachios & Climate Risk: California pistachio growers warn winter heat cut “chill hours,” with March heat disrupting bloom; forecasts point to crop losses up to half, plus more “blank” nuts, pushing prices higher and hitting southern growers and Kerman variety hardest. Iraq–Türkiye Investment: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi met a Turkish business delegation led by Lütfi Elvan, discussing Turkish investment in Iraq’s agriculture and irrigation-linked projects alongside transport, power and dams. Iraq Trade Finance: The EBRD agreed a $75m trade finance facility for Al Mansour Bank to expand import/export finance for Iraqi businesses, including agriculture, with guarantees and compliance support. Iran–Iraq Economic Partnership: Iranian economists urged a broader, more coordinated partnership with Iraq focused on production, investment and jobs, calling for clearer timelines and a unified approach to trade barriers. Syria Wheat Self-Sufficiency Debate: Syria says 2026 wheat output may reduce imports, but questions remain after a Tartus shipment arrived, raising uncertainty over what “self-sufficiency” means in practice. West Bank Water & Farming Livelihoods: UN and rights groups flagged worsening West Bank conditions as Israeli military and settler activity disrupts movement and damages water infrastructure, threatening agriculture-dependent families. Turkey AI for Agriculture: Türkiye launched an AI Action Plan (2026–2030) prioritizing sector pilots including agriculture, aiming for regional AI leadership and private investment in data and infrastructure. Grape Basket Festival (Iraq KRI): Ankawa’s “Grape Basket” festival in Erbil promoted locally grown grapes, modern farming techniques and market access for farmers.

Gaza Food Access Crisis: The UN’s FAO says only 3% of Gaza cropland is accessible and undamaged, down to 448 hectares since Oct 2025, with another 3,643 hectares reachable but too damaged to farm; restrictions on agricultural imports and shrinking greenhouse access are further blocking recovery. West Bank Farm Safety Under Siege: A Palestinian-American family returned to Qusra only to find the area declared a closed military zone while settlers remain nearby, highlighting how access to land and basic services is being disrupted. Iraq Weapons Control: Nouri al-Maliki says a committee to bring weapons under state control will start work ahead of the Sept 30 deadline, including coordination with ministries and PMF on security arrangements in Jurf al-Sakhr. Syria Trade Infrastructure: DP World delivered three Mobile Harbour Cranes for the Port of Tartous, aiming to boost cargo handling capacity by about 40% and support Syria’s economic recovery. Fertilizer Cost Pressure: CoBank expects fertilizer prices to stay above pre-Iran-war levels through 2028, with Middle East instability and limited phosphate supply keeping costs elevated. Hormuz Disruption Hits Inputs: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz as diesel prices surge, raising energy costs that can quickly flow into farm and transport expenses across the region.

Food Security Shock: UN’s SOFI report says 645 million people faced chronic hunger in 2025, while 2.69 billion can’t afford a healthy diet as the cost of nutritious food keeps rising. Middle East Hunger & Prices: Reports from Iran point to food prices up as much as 400% amid war and blockade pressures, deepening affordability stress. Fuel Costs Hitting Farms: The US diesel crack hit record highs near $102/bbl on Middle East supply disruptions, raising costs for tractors and harvesters during peak planting/harvest. Water-Smart Farming: Kuwait’s agricultural experts urge modern tech—smart irrigation, greenhouses, renewables—and organic practices to tackle water scarcity and protect Arab food security. Cotton Cooperation: Pakistan seeks Egypt’s technical help to boost cotton yield and quality, including seed, crop management, irrigation efficiency, and research exchanges. Trade & Exports: ITC begins a Benue assessment to improve cowpea and sesame exports to Europe, targeting pesticide-residue issues. Infrastructure for Recovery: DP World delivered three mobile harbour cranes for Syria’s Port of Tartous, aiming to lift cargo capacity by about 40% to support trade and economic recovery.

Desertification & Drought Response: COP17 in Mongolia (17–28 Aug) is pushing to operationalise the Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Partnership, with UNCCD warning land degradation and drought are already undermining food and livelihoods across vast drylands. Water & Land Security: Syria’s Euphrates levels are rising, prompting heightened alerts, while Egypt’s Nile stance remains a flashpoint as experts outline options to deter Ethiopia’s actions. Middle East Agrifood Trade: Egypt is set to fast-track a $1bn phosphate fertiliser complex, and KKR-backed Advanta plans to acquire an Egypt-based seed company—both aimed at easing input constraints. Export Moves: South Africa’s citrus gets expanded India access via additional fruit-fly cold treatment options, and Peru secured fresh blueberry market access to Egypt after technical negotiations. Agribusiness Signals: Wilmar’s H1 profit rose on stronger soybean crushing and tropical oil margins, a reminder that feed and oilseed economics still drive regional farm-linked supply chains. Conflict Impacts on Farming: Reports say Israeli forces demolished West Bank homes and agricultural sheds and filled wells, directly disrupting rural production. Climate-Linked Markets: El Niño risk is lifting palm oil futures in Malaysia, with traders pricing potential output disruption into 2027.

Pollination & Honey: India’s Independence Day also marked US National Honey Bee Day, with FAO noting bees support nearly one-third of global crop output; the piece argues bees are key for higher yields and better nutrition, while India’s honey production and exports keep scaling. Agribusiness Deals: Afghanistan’s Kabul exhibition ended with 74 cooperation agreements worth over $200M, pushing mechanized farming and export market links, including with Iran. Water & Farming Stress: Syria’s local protests over a planned well that diverts water to al-Tal underline how water scarcity is reigniting community tensions and threatening rural livelihoods. Food Heritage: Saudi Arabia’s Madinah added 35 products to the Ark of Taste, spotlighting wheat, dates, honey and other traditional foods tied to local farming knowledge. Conflict Impact on Agriculture: In Lebanon’s south, Israeli attacks have damaged tens of thousands of hectares of farmland, deepening rural hardship as the financial crisis worsens. Regional Security & Trade: Iran warned it will counter “economic war” pressure, as Hormuz-related tensions keep fueling uncertainty for regional supply chains.

West Bank Farm Protection: Israeli settlers were reported moving livestock onto Palestinian crops in Taybeh, West Bank, stripping olive trees; activists described “protective presence” as a deterrent when local enforcement is weak. Jordan Local Delivery Watch: A Jerash panel under “Maidani” said 70–80% of 2025 government commitments are completed, but some projects still sit in studies or await future budgets, spanning health, water, education, transport, tourism and agriculture. UAE Trade Logistics: AD Ports says it rerouted ships and added overland and air cargo capacity to cushion Strait of Hormuz disruption, prioritizing food and pharmaceuticals. Egypt–Libya Industrial Push: Egypt’s Federation of Egyptian Industries and Libya’s chambers signed a protocol to stage an annual Egyptian-Libyan industrial integration exhibition in Benghazi, targeting April 2027. Israel Plant Protein Breakthrough: Hebrew University researchers report engineered seeds producing real dairy protein (ß-casein), aiming to cut livestock-linked land and emissions. Afghanistan Beekeeping for Women: UNHCR and WASSA training is expanding women-led beekeeping in Herat to support pollination and offer a legal income alternative. Yemen Missile Strike: Houthis fired three ballistic missiles at Marib city, underscoring ongoing instability affecting rural livelihoods.

Project Delivery Watch (Jordan): A Jerash governorate panel under “Maidani” says about 70–80% of 2025 government commitments are done, but key items still sit in studies, implementation, or future budgets—covering health, water, transport, tourism, education, local administration, and agriculture. Agriculture & Water Security (Lebanon): Iran and Hezbollah condemn Israeli strikes after a southern Lebanon massacre, citing destruction of homes and farmland and calling for withdrawal and stronger sovereignty protections—an issue that directly hits rural livelihoods. Plant Science for Crop Resilience: Research in Nature Plants finds Arabidopsis uses a STRUBBELIG–NHL3 receptor partnership to respond when cellulose production drops, offering clues for future stress-tolerant crop management. Trade & Inputs Pressure (Gulf-linked): Strait of Hormuz disruptions are flagged as a risk for higher fuel prices, which can quickly feed into fertiliser and farm operating costs across import-dependent economies. Agri-innovation & Events (Mauritania): The 5th International Date Festival (Atar) opens with an international exhibition, awards, and a symposium on post-harvest innovations and sustainable date-sector development. Poultry Health (Afghanistan/region spillover not covered): Indiana regained HPAI-free status after 28 days without new detections, potentially easing trade barriers for poultry—relevant as regional markets watch disease signals.