AGP Executive Report

West Bank Violence: Israeli opposition leaders accused Netanyahu’s government of enabling “extremists” after settler attacks on Jalud, Qaryut and Al-Mughayyir, with Palestinians alleging army protection and intensified raids and demolitions. UK–Iran Security Fallout: Police released five men on bail after a suspected plot near RAF Fairford; no explosives were found, but the US and UK officials say a “foreign actor” may be involved while Iran rejects any link. Diesel Shock for Farmers: With oil and diesel at historic highs amid Iran-war disruptions, US farm states face mounting costs; debate grows over whether to ban diesel exports or use alternatives like dyed-diesel rules. Food Security in the Horn: Somalia’s hunger crisis worsened as WFP-linked findings warn 5.4m people could face crisis or worse, including 1.5m in emergency levels. Grain Outlook: China signaled a bumper 2026 grain run as modernization advances; Kazakhstan reported nearly 20m tons harvested by late September despite dry-hot pockets. Agri-Industry & Inputs: KBR won a major Saudi ammonia technology deal for a 3,500 MTPD plant, boosting SABIC AN’s fertilizer capacity—key for regional food security.

Food security funding: IFAD joined Nigeria’s Ministry of Agriculture and the World Bank to launch the Nigeria AgriConnect Compact, targeting priority crop and livestock value chains to lift smallholders from subsistence and create jobs and nutrition gains over five years. Resilient food systems: ADB says food-system resilience needs shared upfront spending—public money for irrigation, ports, rural roads and food-safety rules, plus private capital for logistics and risk management. Climate adaptation: Qatar kicked off its 2026 National Dialogue on Climate Change, focusing on moving adaptation from planning to implementation across sectors. Fuel cost squeeze on farms: Diesel price spikes are hitting food delivery and farm operations; in California, a food bank says diesel costs jumped sharply, while broader energy volatility tied to the Iran conflict is raising transport and supply-chain pressure. Trade and agriculture: The US and China agreed to pursue tariff cuts on $60bn of non-sensitive goods, with lists including many farm products—though soybeans were notably excluded. Land and agrifood risk: Kenya’s Lamu court ordered parties to maintain the status quo in a land dispute involving a planned Dangote refinery, a reminder how infrastructure fights can stall local land access. Avian health: Turkey disease updates from avian pathology meetings flagged Enterococcus cecorum-related lameness cases in turkeys.

Energy & Farm Costs: Diesel and heating-oil prices are climbing again as Iran–US tensions rattle oil markets, with UK diesel hitting a record 199.18p/litre and warnings that it could reach £3/litre—raising transport and farm input costs. Regional Trade & Logistics: Analysis says the Iraq–Syria border is emerging as a new energy corridor as oil and fuel flows shift with Hormuz disruption. Security Spillover: UK police arrested five London men near RAF Fairford, a US base used for strikes on Iran; Iran’s embassy “categorically rejects” any link, while investigators keep motive under review—an uncertainty that can affect regional stability and supply chains. Climate Adaptation: Qatar launched its 6th National Dialogue on Climate Change, focusing on moving from planning to implementing climate adaptation across sectors. Agrifood Finance: World Bank approved $750m for Türkiye’s agrifood sector, supporting investment in the food system. Water & Transport in Egypt: Egypt began public operations for phase two of its Bus Rapid Transit network in Greater Cairo, improving access to key corridors that support market and farm-to-city movement.

RAF Fairford Security: British police arrested five men near RAF Fairford, a US base used for strikes on Iran, after a tip-off about three vans; investigators are probing whether an Iranian-linked motive is behind the alleged explosives/terror plot, with 85 nearby homes evacuated during bomb disposal work. Diesel Shock for Farmers: India says it will honor diesel export contracts even if the US moves toward an export ban, as global West Asia tensions keep industrial fuel prices elevated—fuel that directly hits trucking and farm costs. Food-Security Investment Push: Pakistan’s chamber leaders argue private investment in seeds and supply chains can lift yields and exports, urging policy support for crop diversification in oilseeds and pulses. Kuwait Local Development: Jahra Governorate prioritizes road upgrades, new residential areas, and support for agricultural areas, using field monitoring and complaint follow-up to speed service delivery. Agri-Policy & Finance Signals: Qatar completed a $3bn dual-tranche bond sale, while Kuwait’s KISR gained Arab Atomic Energy Agency membership to expand peaceful nuclear cooperation—both read as longer-horizon capacity building for regional development.

Water & River Protection: Iraq marked World Rivers Day by warning that the Tigris and Euphrates are being polluted and said its environment ministry will monitor sources and pursue legal action against violators. Food Security & Reserves: A Philippines rice-reserve warning tied to El Niño says the country’s buffer is “thin,” pushing calls to gradually raise reserve days to protect against repeated poor harvests. Input Costs & Fertiliser Shock: Jordanian experts warn rising farm costs are now hitting consumers, linking the surge to Strait of Hormuz disruptions that have tightened global fertiliser supply and lifted urea, ammonia and sulphur prices. Agri Diplomacy: Türkiye is stepping up agricultural diplomacy to protect supply chains, including talks with Russia on fertiliser and quarantine issues and efforts to prevent tomato and input disruptions. Regional Water Stress & Settlements: Reports highlight continued pressure on West Bank water and farmland, including claims of settlers diverting springs and attacks that restrict farmers’ access. Agrifood Finance & Water Partnerships: FAO and partners at UNGA stressed hunger and malnutrition needs, while GWC and Cargill expanded water-focused farming support to more countries including Türkiye.

Sugar Industry Reform: Zimbabwe’s parliament urges sweeping sugar value-chain fixes—amending the 1964 Sugar Production Control Act, recapitalising rail for the sector, issuing bankable tenure to out-growers, and prioritising water/power with consumption-based billing—aimed at restoring competitiveness. Fuel Shock for Farms: Diesel prices are hitting record highs amid Iran-war energy disruptions, with analysts warning the cost squeeze will flow quickly into trucking and food prices, raising pressure on farmers and consumers across the region. West Bank Water & Farm Attacks: In al-Mughayyir, settlers attacked an ambulance and stole agricultural equipment during a raid on a sheep farm, while broader reports highlight intensified efforts to seize West Bank springs and heritage-linked water sources. Gaza Water Security: Gaza’s desalination plants face shutdown risk from shortages of oils, filters, spare parts and electricity equipment, threatening safe drinking water and public health. GCC-India Agri Linkages: GCC leaders say agriculture is a key pillar for deeper GCC-India cooperation, alongside energy and services, as they move toward free-trade talks. Fertiliser & Cost Context: Coverage also flags nutrient supply pressures (sulphur/potash) and the wider cost environment affecting farm inputs and planning.

Water & Agriculture Policy: UAE climate ministry pushed “water-secure agriculture” at UNGA 81, framing water efficiency as the backbone of food security and resilience. Agrifood Research & Capacity: ICBA launched an “ICBA Research Chair for Sustainable and Resilient Agriculture” for an Emirati woman researcher, targeting soil, water, salinity and resilient crops in arid conditions. Trade & Market Access: China and the US agreed on tariff “recommendations” for about $30bn in non-sensitive goods and set up a working group on agricultural market access barriers, while also creating an AI-incident channel and crisis communications mechanism. Regional Agrifood Business: Jordanian food firms will join Saudi Food Expo 2026 in Jeddah, signaling continued Gulf demand for grains, dairy, bakery and ingredients. Food Security Finance: AfDB unveiled a $5bn emergency buffer aimed at containing energy and fertilizer shocks. Conflict Impact on Farming: Israeli forces killed a Palestinian in Gaza and arrested four West Bank farmers harvesting olives; separate reports describe settler attacks and plans that could further isolate northern West Bank farming areas. West Bank Land & Water Pressure: UN-linked reporting and local monitors highlighted expanded settlement-linked infrastructure and continued spring-water diversion affecting agriculture.

Diesel shock hits Middle East farms: Record diesel prices tied to the Iran conflict are squeezing harvest budgets across the region, with farmers warning that higher fuel costs also lift fertilizer and transport expenses, threatening margins and even farm survival. U.S.-China trade truce, limited ag relief: The Trump–Xi summit ended with few big breakthroughs, but the U.S. and China agreed to extend a trade truce for two months and exempt some agricultural exports from disputes—still leaving broader issues like AI, Taiwan, and Iran unresolved. Iran war politics spill into farm policy: Iowa Senate candidate Ashley Hinson called for an immediate end to the Iran war and urged diesel relief measures, including pausing diesel exports and expanding E15, as voters link fuel spikes to conflict. Lebanon olive groves under dispute: A French-Lebanese businessman filed a civil complaint alleging war crimes after Israeli forces uprooted 600 olive trees on family land in southern Lebanon, raising fresh concerns for agricultural heritage and land access. Negev camel-racing crackdown: Israeli police stopped an illegal camel race in the Negev, seizing animals and detaining minors, as authorities push enforcement against events linked to animal cruelty and disorder.

Black Sea Shipping Diplomacy: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says Egypt, India and Türkiye proposed a reciprocal Black Sea ceasefire to unblock Russia’s blockade, aiming to move agricultural goods safely. Türkiye Agrifood Finance: Türkiye launched a $5.3bn, 10-year farm and food financing program, with an initial $750m World Bank tranche already available to support facilities and machinery. Livestock Investment Talks: The UAE and Kyrgyzstan discussed a modern breeding livestock farm project, including high-yield genetics, feed base development and veterinary standards. Agri Tech for Climate Resilience: Kyrgyzstan launched its first agriculture-focused satellite to monitor arable land, soils, drought risk and crop yields. Food Fraud Crackdown: Israeli police seized about 76,800 eggs allegedly fraudulently stamped as Israeli-origin and destroyed them before they reached shelves. Harvest Pressure: UK harvest updates show wheat, spring barley and oats yields below historic levels after limited spring rainfall. Energy Cost Shock for Farms: Reports highlight diesel price stress across Europe and the risk that any US diesel export ban could push prices higher, squeezing farmers and hauliers. Iraq Pipeline Theft: Iraq’s INSS says it dismantled a crude oil siphoning network in al-Muthanna that used hidden underground piping and cement trucks, earning about $380k a month.

Diesel shock hits farms and food prices: The US is weighing a short-term ban on diesel exports as record prices squeeze harvest budgets and raise grocery costs, with advisers studying whether curbs would help during peak farming season. Energy-to-food ripple: Analysts warn any relief would be short-lived because global diesel supply is tight after Iran-linked disruptions and refinery outages, keeping diesel premiums elevated. Policy response in the region: Nebraska moved to pause diesel taxes for seasonal ag transport and raised vehicle weight limits to ease logistics costs, while the EU approved €11m Romanian aid for pig farmers facing higher fuel and fertiliser costs tied to the Middle East crisis. Trade and agrifood links: Armenia and Iraq agreed to boost exports of Armenian goods, including agricultural products, as investors and governments push for stronger cross-border agrifood cooperation. Climate risk backdrop: El Niño is intensifying toward a very strong event, raising concerns for rainfall swings that could further stress water and crop planning across the region.

Gaza’s Farm Collapse: A UNCTAD report says Gaza’s economy is in the “most severe crisis on record,” with Israeli operations damaging or destroying 92% of economic establishments and cutting agricultural and industrial output by 94% versus 2022—while food prices have surged, with potatoes reportedly costing over 20 times pre-conflict levels. Qatar Customs Rules: Qatar clarified that higher poultry and vegetable tariffs apply only to imports from non-exempt countries, raising uncut chicken to 18% and tomatoes/eggplants/zucchini to 15% during peak months, with GCC and several regional partners exempt. Saudi Protein R&D: Saudi Arabia’s Tanmiah opened an Innovation Center in Riyadh to speed development of halal, sustainable protein products, including customized work for hotels and foodservice. West Bank Demolitions: Israeli forces demolished homes and agricultural assets in Masafer Yatta (Janba), displacing about 176 people, including children. Fuel Shock for Farmers: Cash shortages and diesel price pressure are hitting farm operations, including delayed wheat payments in Syria’s Hasaka as banks lack liquidity ahead of the next planting season. Arish Seaport Upgrade: Egypt’s Arish seaport expansion is advancing to support Sinai industrial and agricultural exports, with key marine works already completed.

Cyprus Buffer-Zone Farming: Turkish forces again blocked Greek Cypriot farmers from plowing near Deneia; UN peacekeepers were deployed and farmers continued work under UN supervision. Iraq Aquaculture Boost: Kirkuk Directorate of Agriculture released 500,000 carp fry into the Little Zab River to expand fish stocks and support food security. Middle East AI Investment: Microsoft unveiled a $10B+ technology framework for the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia through 2030, including cloud/AI expansion and “digital resilience” initiatives. UNGA Iran Stance: Iran’s Pezeshkian told the UN it won’t bow to US pressure, insisting on peaceful nuclear technology for medicine, agriculture and industry. Fertiliser Market Pressure: Drought-hit regions saw weaker fertiliser use, while Middle East conflict risks are already hardening prices and raising phosphorus concerns. Pakistan Macro Outlook: ADB kept FY27 growth at 3.7% but flagged 8.3% inflation risk tied to energy and logistics costs from regional conflict. Yobe Investment Push: Nigeria’s Yobe showcased gum arabic and sesame investment opportunities at UNGA to attract foreign partners and build value chains. Punjab Mechanisation: Pakistan’s Punjab launched the Green Tractor Scheme Phase IV and opened Phase V applications for 19,500 tractors via digital balloting. Syria Diplomacy Claim: Syria’s al Sharaa told the UNGA the country is “rising” and warned Israel’s actions are undermining recovery.

Diesel shock hits Middle East-linked fuel markets: Iran war and Hormuz disruption are keeping global diesel tight, with renewed talk in the US about a diesel export ban—an idea US officials and the Chamber of Commerce warn could backfire by worsening refinery logistics and raising costs for farmers and consumers. Farm input pressure spreads: The same fuel squeeze is feeding into higher transport and production costs across food systems, while Middle East conflict is also cited as a driver of inflation and energy disruptions. Regional food security risk from climate + conflict: The IMF warns Sri Lanka’s recovery could be derailed by El Niño and spillovers from the Middle East crisis, with drought and heavy rain expected to hit the largely agricultural economy. Agri-trade cooperation: Uzbekistan and Iran agreed to step up practical agricultural and business cooperation after an agricultural forum, aiming to implement memorandums and expand interregional ties. Export logistics for legumes: Kazakhstan shipped lentils to India via the Middle Corridor (rail across the Caspian, then onward by sea/rail), highlighting growing South Asian demand for Kazakh grain legumes. UAE beekeeping spotlight: Abu Dhabi will host the Global Food Week 2026 Honey Symposium and a honey tasting platform, with sessions on biodiversity and sustainable beekeeping.

Diesel shock hits farms and food chains: With the Iran war and Ukraine strikes tightening global fuel supplies, U.S. diesel prices have surged to record levels, prompting lawmakers to push a possible diesel export ban—analysts warn it could backfire by disrupting supply chains and raising grocery costs. Ukraine war and Black Sea grain pressure: Russia’s missile and drone attacks continue to hit Ukraine’s oil infrastructure and ports, while grain exports face severe disruption ahead of the 2026 harvest, raising risks for global food availability. Avian influenza alert: Iowa confirmed another H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza case in a multi-species backyard flock, urging poultry producers to strengthen biosecurity. Farm support gaps: A Philippines lawmaker said 40% of farmers are missing from the government aid database, leaving many unable to access fuel subsidies. Sugar and cocoa market swings: Cocoa prices fell on ample near-term supply and weather concerns in Ivory Coast, while sugar recovered on rain-related harvest worries in Brazil. Pakistan–Saudi ties with agri angle: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a visa waiver pact for diplomatic and official passport holders, building on broader cooperation including agriculture and food security. Academic cooperation: Pakistan’s Sindh Agriculture University and Turkish institutions explored research and exchange links, including greenhouse collaboration.

Fuel-price squeeze on farms: Diesel hit record levels in the US as the Iran conflict disrupts supply via the Strait of Hormuz, pushing farmers toward “survival mode” and threatening break-even harvests; lawmakers even floated export-bans and tax suspensions, but industry warns it could worsen shortages. Input-cost pressure: The same energy shock is feeding into higher fertilizer costs, compounding yield and margin risks for row-crop producers. Israel border biosecurity: Israel’s Agriculture Ministry warned travelers not to bring Sukkot’s “Four Species” without authorization, citing hidden pests and plant diseases that could harm local crops and exports. Regional water politics: Egypt’s water stance toward Ethiopia’s Nile dam remains contentious, with critics pointing to domestic water-intensive farming choices. Agri cooperation for recovery: Ukraine and Syria signed an agreement to expand humanitarian mine action, including drone-based detection and training to help return contaminated land to productive use. Market access push: Rwanda’s Kumwe Green Farms shipped 70 tons of avocados to the UAE using smallholder aggregation and export logistics support, with women making up most growers.

Fertilizer Supply Politics: Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe warned against a Trump plan to buy “blood potash” from Belarus, arguing logistics and ethics won’t beat Canadian fertilizer and could undercut farmers. Fuel Shock for Farms: Diesel hit record highs around $6.22–$6.51/gal in parts of the US, with Iowa and Kansas harvest operations reporting major margin pressure and calls to pause diesel exports. US-Iran War Fallout: Two tight Senate races (Iowa’s Ashley Hinson and Michigan’s Mike Rogers) shifted to demand an immediate end to the Iran conflict, linking it directly to higher fuel and food costs. Iraq Trade Rules: Iraq’s Ministry of Trade said it will tighten import controls, strengthen quality checks, and streamline exports to Gulf states, Turkey, Iran, Jordan, Egypt and beyond. West Bank Farm Disruption: Palestinian olive harvest is again being delayed as access restrictions and settler presence keep farmers from reaching their land. Poultry Health Risk: Minnesota turkey producers reported renewed avian influenza spread, with calls for faster vaccination planning. Agriculture & Logistics Trade: A Russia food and fisheries trade push highlights growing links to China, India, the Gulf and Africa, with Moscow using major fairs to expand procurement, processing and cold-chain logistics.