AGP Executive Report

Fertiliser & food shock watch: The UN FAO is warning that Strait of Hormuz disruptions could trigger a global food price crisis in 6–12 months, as trade bottlenecks ripple into fertilizer supply and farm input costs. Urea supply reassurance (local): Bangladesh’s government says there’s no urea shortage for the Aman season, citing operating factories, expected production recovery, and confirmed imports—while stressing the need to prevent any “artificial” shortage as global prices jump. Energy-to-agriculture pressure: India’s central bank approved a record $29.9bn surplus transfer to the government, with the wider backdrop of higher oil and fertilizer costs tied to Hormuz constraints. Conflict hitting farmland: Reports from Syria and Lebanon describe Israeli raids and strikes that directly target or damage agricultural areas and rural infrastructure, raising crop-loss fears. Trade diplomacy with ag spillovers: Pakistan’s China visit and China’s pledge to boost purchases of US beef and poultry both signal how quickly ag markets can swing when geopolitics shifts.

EU–Mexico Trade Update: Ursula von der Leyen says the EU’s refreshed deal with Mexico—cutting 99% of tariffs—will save Europe’s agrifood sector about €100m a year, as tariff shocks and supply-chain stress keep reshaping farm economics. Middle East Shock to Inputs: With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, the EU is suspending duties on nitrogen fertilisers (urea/ammonia) for a year to blunt Iran-war price spikes, while a leaked World Bank document says 27 countries have already activated emergency crisis financing since Feb. 28. Water & Irrigation Push: Nigeria’s ATASP-1 handed over a rehabilitated irrigation pumping station in Anambra, restoring dry-season farming across 2,000+ hectares. Türkiye Trade Signal: Türkiye’s April trade deficit narrowed 29.8% as exports jumped, with manufacturing still dominating exports. On-the-ground Agriculture: Syria’s wheat and Lebanon’s farmland keep taking hits amid conflict, while farmers worldwide brace for higher fuel and fertiliser costs.

Fertilizer & fuel squeeze: The Strait of Hormuz fallout is still hitting farm budgets hard, with the EU temporarily lifting duties on key nitrogen fertilizers (urea/ammonia) for a year to blunt Iran-war price shocks, while farmers elsewhere warn supermarket caps won’t work and could push costs onto producers. Policy pressure: In the UK, officials are debating how to protect staples without forcing farmers out of business; in Ireland, a new Plant Health and Biosecurity Strategy 2026–2030 puts pests and trade-linked disease spread front and center. Food security diplomacy: FAO leadership is calling for food security to move higher on the UN agenda as global agrifood risk rises. Regional ag disruptions: Iraq suspended livestock transit from Syria over foot-and-mouth concerns. Trade signals: Kazakhstan’s grain exports to Afghanistan and Central Asia are surging, and Egypt is pitching itself as a grain storage and processing hub for Middle East/Africa flows. Market volatility: Grain and cattle markets remain jumpy as Iran-driven energy costs keep feeding inflation fears.

Diesel Relief in Spain: EU data shows Spain’s average diesel price slid below €1.70 a litre for the first time since March, easing pressure after emergency VAT and tax cuts tied to the Iran-linked fuel shock. Iran Talks and Oil Spillover: Markets are reacting to fresh optimism that the US and Iran are nearing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping energy volatility front and center for farmers and consumers. Fertiliser Supply Strain: India’s IFFCO fertiliser plant in Paradip has suspended production after Middle East shipping disruptions cut key inputs, raising alarms for the kharif season and local jobs. Middle East War Hits Food Jobs: A Reuters report says the Iran war is squeezing Gulf-linked employment and also denting India’s labour-intensive export demand, leaving returning workers stuck at home. Local Drought Stress: In Cebu City, prolonged dry conditions have damaged hundreds of hectares and hundreds of farmers, with officials weighing calamity status as vegetable supply risks price spikes. Policy Pressure in the UK: Retailers push back on Reeves’ tariff relaxations and price-cap talk, warning savings may not reach supermarket shelves.

Fuel Shock on the Water: Diesel prices are spiking as the Iran war tightens global energy flows, forcing fishermen from Maine to South Korea and the Netherlands to stay dockside longer and check traps less often—raising costs and threatening already-thin margins. Food Security Pressure: FAO warns Strait of Hormuz disruption could trigger a global food crisis within a year, with fertilizer, seeds, yields and prices all at risk as decisions on inputs and trade routes narrow. Fertilizer Policy Divergence: Russia says it’s insulated from fertilizer price swings by freezing domestic prices via a quota mechanism, while other markets without similar protection face higher harvest costs. Regional Agri Diplomacy: Israel’s envoy to Nepal signals interest in agriculture and skills cooperation for Karnali, including boosting indigenous crops and medicinal herbs for export. Market Watch: Mango export season is starting in Bangladesh with early shipments to 14 countries, while Turkey’s antitrust case sees another agri stats settlement move forward.

Strait of Hormuz pressure on food systems: FAO warns the Strait’s closure is turning into a systemic agrifood shock, with a severe global food price crisis possible within 6–12 months unless countries reroute trade, curb export restrictions, and protect humanitarian flows. Energy-to-farm cost squeeze: With fuel and fertiliser still tied to Middle East risk, farmers across the region are bracing for higher operating costs; in the UK, ministers are extending fuel-duty relief and cutting red diesel duty to blunt the Iran-war hit. Policy response, not price caps: UK supermarket bosses reject food price caps as “idiotic,” pushing instead for lower taxes and regulation to keep competition alive. Trade momentum that could help imports: The UK sealed a GCC free trade deal, with agriculture among the defended sectors, while the US–China summit kept agriculture on the agenda but without confirmed breakthroughs. Weather stress adds another layer: Kansas wheat is forecast to be the worst since 1972 as drought and rising input costs collide. Regional infrastructure push: ADNOC reiterates $150bn capex and accelerates a second pipeline via Fujairah to bypass Hormuz chokepoints.

Hormuz Shock to Food Bills: Oil and shipping stress is still rippling through farm inputs, with UN/industry warnings that Hormuz disruptions could trigger a global food crisis and keep fertilizer and fuel costs elevated. Farm Cost Pressure: In the US Plains, drought plus higher diesel and fertilizer prices are forcing hard choices on whether to plant or harvest, while Texas/Oklahoma producers report near-loss conditions. Fertilizer/Fuel Relief Politics: South Africa’s food inflation eased to a 14-month low, but the agriculture minister warned farmers are still absorbing record fuel costs. Policy Response in Asia: The Philippines’ House approved a time-bound “whole-of-government” emergency program (KALINGA) to protect low-income households and hit sectors like farmers during future fuel-price shocks. IMF Stability Move: Moldova is set for a new IMF non-financing program to manage energy-driven inflation risks. Ceasefire Human Toll: Lebanon’s child casualties remain severe even during a temporary ceasefire, underscoring how conflict disruption keeps hitting rural livelihoods and farmland.

Iran-US brinkmanship: Iran’s officials reiterated defense readiness and warned against fresh US-Israeli aggression as Xi Jinping urged a “comprehensive” Middle East ceasefire and said restarting war is “unacceptable,” while Washington signaled it’s “locked and loaded” if talks fail. Food security pressure: A UN report says acute hunger is worsening—people facing acute food insecurity rose from 105m (2016) to 266m (2025)—with conflicts and protracted crises driving the climb. Fertiliser and fuel squeeze: The Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps pushing up energy and fertiliser costs, and Europe is debating whether to lean on subsidies or targeted support for farmers. UK cost-of-living fight: UK Treasury talks with supermarkets to cap essentials like bread, milk and eggs face pushback from retailers warning against “price controls.” Logistics move: Saudi Mawani launched the Red Sea Express container service linking Yanbu with Jeddah, Ain Sokhna and Aqaba to keep trade flowing through the region.

Taiwan Tensions: Xi warned Trump that mishandling Taiwan could trigger “clashes and even conflicts,” with U.S. officials again weighing how fast an invasion could be. Fertiliser Shock in Europe: Brussels’ fertiliser action plan is set to stall on CBAM for now, while the EU looks at longer-term fixes like cow manure—an approach critics say won’t cover the near-term squeeze. Middle East Farm Damage: Israel reported dropping phosphorus shells on southern Lebanon farms and continuing ceasefire violations, while the Hormuz bottleneck keeps fertilizer exports stuck and raises the risk of a late-2026 food hit. Grain Theft Tracking: Ukraine says it can trace tens of millions of tons of occupied grain using lab testing and satellite data, aiming to identify stolen shipments. Policy Pressure on Inputs: The U.S. EPA plans to eliminate diesel exhaust fluid requirements for farm equipment after reports of tractor shutdowns during peak seasons. Food Price Controls: The Philippines is moving to a nationwide rice SRP of ₱53/kg as it tries to curb staple inflation.

Iran-War Food Shock: Iran says it has submitted a response to a US proposal via Pakistan, while the US says its port blockade has redirected traffic and tightened Strait of Hormuz transit—keeping global fertilizer and shipping stress front and center. Trade Relief for Farmers: After Trump’s Beijing visit, the White House says China will ramp up purchases of US beef and poultry to about $17bn a year (2026-28), but farmers are still warning that soaring input costs from the Iran war could erase the benefit. Fertiliser & Fuel Squeeze: UNDP’s head warns food shortages may hit from September/October as fertilizer production falls and tankers crawl through Hormuz; in Australia, the government secured extra China jet fuel and Brunei urea to protect farming and transport. Regional Farm Impacts: South Africa’s citrus is taking a flood hit (up to 12% crop risk), while Kenya’s manufacturers— including agro-processing—report contraction and higher costs. Pest Pressure: Australia approved stronger zinc phosphide bait to fight a mouse plague threatening crops.

Hormuz Shock Fallout: EU ministers warn Russia and China could exploit Iran-war disruptions to gain leverage over developing countries facing energy and fertilizer shortages, with food insecurity and price spikes possible before year-end. Trade Signals for Farmers: After the Trump–Xi summit, China agreed to buy at least $17B a year in U.S. ag products (2026–2028), including restoring U.S. beef access and resuming poultry imports from bird-flu-free states—an export lifeline for U.S. farm margins. Input-Cost Pressure: An ILO update says the West Asia crisis is already hitting jobs and incomes, and if oil or fertilizer prices keep rising, global labor losses could follow—feeding through to rural livelihoods and food prices. Local Pricing Tensions: Syria’s Kurdish National Council calls for urgent wheat price revisions, arguing current purchase rates don’t cover real production costs. Regional Development Push: Iraq’s Development Fund and UNDP sign a deal targeting water resilience and agricultural value chains.

Egypt’s New Delta: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi inaugurated the New Delta megaproject in Dabaa, aiming to turn 2.3 million acres of desert into farmland with treated drainage-water irrigation, plus roads, power and wastewater systems—investments put at about $15bn. US–China Agri Boost: After the Trump–Xi summit, the White House says China will buy at least $17bn a year of US beef and poultry (2026–2028) and restore beef access, offering some relief to farmers hit by trade frictions. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: The same backdrop keeps squeezing food inputs: Iran-war disruptions are still pushing up fertiliser and fuel costs, with knock-on effects across farm budgets and supply chains. Gaza Construction Blockade: In Gaza, cement and building materials are barred, forcing improvised “cement” work from rubble—raising serious health risks for the only construction activity still running. Markets in Risk-Off Mode: China’s yuan and stocks slid as Middle East tensions and weaker growth data dented appetite for risk, feeding into broader cost pressures.

Iraq Wheat Fire: A major blaze swept through a wheat field in Saladin’s Al-Naama, burning about 0.5–1.5 hectares before Civil Defense teams contained it; officials suspect an electrical short circuit. Egypt Mega-Farming Push: President Al-Sisi inaugurated the New Delta project in Giza, targeting about 2.2 million feddans using treated drainage water, with investments nearing EGP 800bn and new roads, pumping and power infrastructure. Horn of Africa Water Politics: Egypt’s foreign and transport ministers visited Eritrea to deepen ties as Cairo seeks to counter Ethiopia in the Nile dispute. Food-Price Pressure Across Borders: MPs in the UK are set to review how the Iran war is hitting food supply chains and inflation; in the Philippines, the agriculture department is finalizing a rice SRP of P53/kg and warning the impact may last beyond 30 days. Input Costs & Market Strain: Italy’s Mutti warned tomato prices could rise if high energy costs persist into peak summer processing. Agritech Ambitions: Nepal’s Karnali youth leaders urged Israeli support for agricultural modernisation and export-ready value addition for indigenous crops.

Input Shock: China has banned sulphuric acid exports after Middle East-linked shipping disruptions, threatening upstream supplies for fertiliser and EV battery production and raising the odds of higher costs for farmers and manufacturers. Trade Signals: After the Trump–Xi summit, China says it will cut levies on some products and expand agriculture trade with the U.S., but details are still being negotiated—so markets get “stabilisation,” not certainty. Iran Corridor Pressure: Iran is also moving to manage maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with a new system, underscoring how the region’s shipping rules can quickly ripple into energy and food prices. Heat Stress: Pakistan and parts of India are enduring extreme heat that is already disrupting labour and farming, with Karachi hitting its highest readings in years. Food & Nutrition: Pakistan’s dairy sector is under scrutiny as nutrition and food-safety gaps keep malnutrition high despite large milk output. Conflict on Land: In the occupied West Bank, settlers’ attacks have forced residents to abandon a farming village, shrinking access to farmland and supplies.

World Cup “economic soft power” push: Young Jordanians in the US launched a New Jersey-based initiative to boost Jordanian product sales during FIFA World Cup 2026 via e-commerce, digital marketing, and community partnerships. China–US trade reset: China’s foreign ministry said Beijing and Washington agreed to cut tariffs on some goods and expand cooperation, including agriculture, while the US signaled no major tariff discussion—leaving details still under negotiation. Iran-war cost squeeze hits food systems: Diesel and fuel shocks tied to the Iran conflict are driving inflation spikes and budget stress, from Philippine regions (diesel inflation surging) to US school districts scrambling for emergency fuel. Iraq’s reform agenda: Iraq’s new PM Ali al-Zaidi vowed a “comprehensive” economic reform plan and anti-corruption drive, explicitly naming agriculture as part of the diversification push. Agriculture trade pressure in Syria–Iraq: Syria says exports to Iraq have fallen as Iraqi production improves, shrinking Syrian shipments to a small set of fruits. Input prices and policy pressure: Fertiliser and fuel price hikes continue to strain farmers across the region, with governments and industry groups calling for relief and faster, clearer measures.

Hormuz shock hits farms again: Iraq’s Kirkuk agricultural water is being contaminated by an oil spill spreading across an irrigation canal, with residents reporting crop damage and livestock refusing to drink—raising fears of longer-term soil and groundwater harm. Input-cost squeeze spreads fast: Fuel and fertilizer price pressure tied to the Middle East war is still driving inflation and threatening planting and harvest budgets, from India’s diesel-linked cost exposure to farmers in the Philippines’ Cordillera where diesel inflation surged alongside food inflation. Policy tries to catch up: India’s Centre will buy onions at ₹1,235 a quintal after West Asia disruption hit exports, while Connecticut submitted its third plan to use federal cuts response funding to protect dairy farms and other essentials. Trade openings, but uncertainty remains: Kenya welcomed China’s May 1 zero-tariff extension to 53 African countries, aiming to boost agricultural competitiveness—though the wider Iran-linked energy shock continues to cloud logistics and costs. UAE-Iran tensions: The UAE rejected Iran’s “malicious accusations” at BRICS, reaffirming it will respond to hostile acts.