AGP Executive Report

Food Prices & Supply Risk: The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index jumped about 13.5% in August, its biggest monthly gain since 2012, as Black Sea shipping disruptions, El Niño, and higher fertilizer/diesel costs raise food-crisis fears across the Middle East and North Africa. Water & Desalination Stress: Israel’s desalination systems remain under strain, with water disruptions tied to plant shutdowns and turbidity issues—an agriculture hit as farmers face reduced irrigation reliability. Israel–West Bank Tensions: Overnight raids saw 12 Palestinians detained in the occupied West Bank, while settlers reportedly set fire to vehicles—raising pressure on rural livelihoods and farm access. Qatar Policy: Qatar’s cabinet renewed condemnation of Iran’s attacks on Gulf neighbors and approved a draft cloud computing law, signaling continued focus on security and digital governance. UAE Trade: The UAE received 60 tons of Armenian fish products, including large trout, highlighting ongoing regional food import flows. Arable Tech & Data: The USDA is piloting satellite-and-AI crop data upgrades after farmer criticism—relevant to how the region may modernize farm reporting and planning. Climate Shock in the Horn: A strong El Niño is developing over East Africa, worsening drought/flood risk in a conflict-heavy region where food and humanitarian systems have little room to absorb shocks.

Water Security & Regional Risk: Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif warned at the SCO summit that water must never be “weaponised,” stressing the Indus system’s role in Pakistan’s agriculture and food security. Israel–Lebanon Escalation: Israeli airstrikes hit multiple sites across southern Lebanon’s Tyre district as Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri warned the campaign aims to inflame internal strife and threaten Lebanon’s civil peace. Iraq Food Security: Iraq’s Cabinet banned agricultural imports until the end of the domestic production season and approved a draft law to create a Food and Drug Authority, alongside steps on water and sewage projects in Baghdad. Israel Water Crisis: Reports say most Israeli desalination plants shut down again due to turbid seawater and Nile Delta algae, with water restrictions continuing and raising risks for vegetable crops. Livestock Health: Pakistan’s National Assembly was briefed that foot-and-mouth disease control is essential for meat exports, with a national FMD control plan underway and consultations with provinces. Agri Trade & Exports: UP launched a horticulture export promotion website to help farmers and FPOs meet overseas standards and access subsidies; Ethiopia and China’s Yunnan also pushed deeper coffee trade and value-add cooperation. Input Costs & Production Pressure: Farmers across the region face rising fertiliser, seed and pesticide costs tied to transport and supply disruptions, while seasonal delays and heat/humidity complicate planning.

Agri-Fuel Subsidies: Maldives’ fisheries ministry is moving oil subsidy applications and issuance to the Fahi Hakatha portal, requiring fishermen to register by Sept 15; subsidised diesel volumes are set by vessel size and fuel on credit is available via MIFCO/FSM. West Bank Farm Damage: Palestinian farmers in Burin say Israeli settler attacks have destroyed greenhouses and crops, but cooperatives are rebuilding to keep land and livelihoods alive. Water Stress for Farming: Israel’s desalination shutdowns and ongoing water restrictions are again hitting Negev crops, with reports of turbidity and algae linked to plant closures. Food Security & Trade: A USDA report says Ukraine’s poultry exports to Africa remain below pre-war levels, with new access limits and the EU/UK barriers reshaping flows; Türkiye’s new zero-duty quota under the Ukraine-Türkiye free trade deal is noted. Harvest Losses: Iraq’s Duhok province reports 10 grain-crop fires during the 2026 harvest, with losses estimated at 141.7m dinars. Agroecology Research: Puerto Rico’s agroecological research community launches a Science for (and with) the People Fund to back young researchers and biodiversity-friendly farming knowledge. Livestock Health: UK bluetongue cases are rising, and farmers are urged to vaccinate amid spread concerns.

Biofuel Policy Shock (U.S.): The EPA granted expanded small-refinery biofuel blending exemptions for 2025, totaling 1.76 billion renewable fuel credits, and plans to shift the difference into 2026–27—raising fresh uncertainty for Middle East-linked farm and biofuel supply chains. Food Security Under Strain (Cuba): A BBC review says Cuba’s food crisis is deepening despite arable land, with pork, rice, beans and milk production collapsing since 2018 and imports covering about four-fifths of food needs. Water & Irrigation Disruption (Israel): A Nile Delta algae bloom clogged Israel’s desalination filtration, shutting five of six plants before partial restarts—an immediate hit to water reliability for farming. Agriculture Trade Push (Pakistan–Saudi): Pakistan’s value-added fruit sector is urging faster market access to Saudi Arabia as the “Makkah Pact” supports a push toward $3bn agri-food exports in two years. Power & Farm Inputs (Pakistan): Pakistan’s government apologized for night load shedding, blaming lack of contracted LNG and citing higher spot prices tied to the Iran–U.S. conflict and Hormuz closures. Conflict Impacts on Farms (Southern Lebanon): Reports say ceasefire violations included shelling and burning affecting farms and rural areas in multiple towns. Settlement Risk to Land (West Bank): Israel established a new settler outpost near Jenin, with Palestinians warning it threatens agricultural land and access to grazing.

Iraq Potato Import Gap: Iraq imported nearly 90,000 tons of potatoes worth about $52.4m in 2025, highlighting a domestic production shortfall and the need for better storage, marketing, and productivity to compete with regional suppliers (notably Iran, Egypt, and Türkiye). Gaza Farm-Linked Violence: Israeli fire killed two Palestinians and injured 11 in Gaza, with additional injuries reported for fishermen; separate reports also cite West Bank demolitions. Coffee Price Jump: The ICO says global coffee prices rose in July, with the composite indicator up 15.4% month-on-month as Brazil weather concerns, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tighter Arabica supplies pushed prices higher. Grain Market Volatility: Corn, soybeans, and wheat fell in early trading as Black Sea shipping worries and Turkey’s push for a grain deal stirred fast-moving futures. Korean Beef Returns to Hong Kong: Revised quarantine rules let Korean beef exports resume from specific cities/counties after foot-and-mouth outbreaks, easing province-wide restrictions. Climate Stress Signal: A major Nepal flood is framed as a warning sign of worsening heat-driven disasters that can disrupt agriculture and water systems. Saudi Quantum for Food Security Tech: KACST and Pasqal launched a quantum research collaboration in Saudi Arabia, starting with quantum-safe cryptography—aimed at strengthening national tech readiness.

Pakistan–Saudi Agri Trade Push: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia agreed to target USD 3bn in Pakistani agricultural and food exports to Riyadh within two years, prioritizing rice, red meat, fruits and fruit concentrates, green fodder and water-efficient ag technologies, with talks led by Saudi Environment/Water/Agriculture minister Abdulrahman Al-Fadley and Pakistan’s National Food Security minister Rana Tanveer Hussain. Climate Risk to Food Systems: Scientists warn the current “Super El Niño” could persist into 2027, bringing extreme heat and worsening water stress across the GCC—bad news for farm output and water tables. Food Security Partnerships: Qatar Chamber explored stronger Qatar–Brazil ties in food security and logistics, focusing on animal protein and private-sector partnerships with Brazilian industry groups. Water & Soil Pressure: FAO warns Morocco’s expanding farmland is adding pressure to fragile soils, raising sustainability concerns. Fertiliser Shock Watch: Reports highlight fertiliser price shocks as a growing poverty risk, with knock-on effects for next-season planting.

Pakistan–Saudi Agri Deal: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia agreed to push agricultural and food exports to $3bn over the next two years, building on a joint agriculture and food security plan discussed during a Saudi delegation visit to Islamabad. Water & Climate Resilience: Oman launched a symposium in Salalah on water resources sustainability and climate change, focusing on adaptation, modern water tech, and policy partnerships for arid regions. Food Security Stress in the Arab World: Experts warn climate shocks are worsening food and water insecurity across the Arab region, where fresh-water scarcity and limited arable land leave agriculture highly exposed. Egypt Renewable Push: Egypt’s electricity and renewable energy minister met Masdar to review solar, wind and battery storage projects, including grid connections planned from late 2026 into 2027. Iraq Land Protection: Iraq will deploy drones across Baghdad to curb illegal land encroachments, after deadly clashes linked to removals on agricultural land. Gaza & West Bank Farm Impacts: Reports describe continued strikes and siege measures affecting farmers and access to food, water and healthcare, including attacks on a medicine warehouse at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital.

Aquaculture Investment: NAPCO Aqua says it’s pushing new recirculating aquaculture systems and biofloc projects in Saudi Arabia, building on 2,000-tonne pilot work and aiming to cut operating costs while boosting output. Desert Development & Land Use: Iraq’s Al-Rutba district in Anbar is pitching its groundwater, minerals and power network to attract agricultural, industrial and logistics projects as security and infrastructure improve. Fertiliser & Trade Pressure: Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warns US sanctions are squeezing Iran’s hard-currency access, with knock-on effects for agriculture and industry; he also flags Strait of Hormuz disruption as a major driver of higher costs. Grain Market Shock: Euronext and Chicago wheat prices hit contract highs as Black Sea grain shipments remain disrupted, raising fears over next season’s planting and input spending. Egypt Renewable Power for Grid: IFC plans up to $100m toward Egypt’s 900-MW Shadwan wind farm, targeting lower electricity costs and capacity expansion. Jordan Industry Exports: Jordan’s industrial exports rose 8.9% in H1 2026 to JD4.4bn, with chemicals and cosmetics leading gains. Livestock Disease Control: Zimbabwe tightened cattle movement rules in Matabeleland North and South as foot-and-mouth disease spreads, requiring veterinary clearance to curb further transmission. Food Security in Gaza: UN officials say ceasefire-era aid and safety failures are keeping Palestinians trapped, with continued attacks and obstruction undermining recovery.

Gaza & West Bank Farm Safety: A Gaza grape farmer has returned to surviving vineyards after nearly three years of war, while in the occupied West Bank Israeli settler violence and raids are escalating—Qusra residents report a home surrounded and land set on fire, with ambulances delayed, and agricultural areas hit in Hebron and elsewhere. Food Security Under Strain: The UN says it delivered food and essentials to 600,000+ people in Gaza this month, but WFP warns hunger is worsening as families report running out of food and cash shortages and prices rise. Agriculture & Conflict Impacts: Israeli forces killed a Palestinian farmer in central Gaza while drone strikes and gunfire also wounded people in Gaza and the West Bank, underscoring how farming and rural livelihoods are being targeted. Fertilizer & Soil Management: Qatar Chamber highlighted food security and fertilizer-supply resilience at the Arab-Brazilian Economic Forum, while separate reporting points to soil-fertility shifts from changing agronomic practices and the need for better nutrient management. Trade & Input Costs: Reports on the Iran-linked cost squeeze keep tying higher fertilizer and fuel prices to tighter farm margins across the region.

Pakistan–Saudi Agri Pact: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia agreed to expand cooperation in agriculture, water management and food security, with a focus on boosting productivity via technology and research and improving water use, alongside continued support for Pakistani farm exports to the Kingdom. Water Stress & Farm Output: In Gaza, families are trying to regrow grapevines and fig trees after Israeli bulldozers destroyed their land, using irrigation and rehabilitation to revive only a fraction of trees; in the Philippines’ Pangasinan, farmers report monsoon flooding that drowned seedlings and delayed planting. Input Costs Pressure: Illinois Governor JB Pritzker urged fertilizer import tax relief, saying nitrogen prices have surged and are squeezing corn farmers and raising grocery costs. Trade & Logistics for Food: ICTSI signed an agreement to acquire a port and cargo operator serving Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa, targeting bulk and agricultural product handling—an infrastructure move that can affect regional farm supply chains. Regional Security With Farm Impacts: Iraq’s Baghdad informal-settlement crackdown turned deadly, spotlighting housing and land enforcement issues that can spill into rural-to-urban land access and services.

Gaza Agriculture Under Fire: Israeli strikes hit farmers in Al-Qarara, killing three Palestinians from the same family, with Gaza health figures again highlighting the toll since the ceasefire. West Bank Farm Disruption: Reports also describe Israeli demolition and raids that target homes and agricultural structures, adding pressure on rural livelihoods. Regional Water-Security Pressure: Israel’s water demand is said to be outpacing desalination capacity, raising stakes for food and farming resilience. Pakistan–Saudi Ag Ties: Saudi’s environment, water and agriculture minister met Pakistan’s army chief, reaffirming cooperation on agriculture and environmental sustainability, while PM Shehbaz framed the Makkah defence pact as a platform for deeper economic and agricultural links. Trade and Input Costs: A Philippines producer-price update links agriculture price declines to the Middle East conflict and a stronger US dollar, with livestock and poultry hardest hit. Food Supply Chain Risk: US moves on beef imports and processing rules are drawing renewed political pushback from lawmakers worried about domestic cattle farmers. Turkey Security Framework: Turkey’s “terror-free Türkiye” initiative set a roadmap for monitoring and evaluation, with implications for rural stability and seasonal labor flows.

Israel–Lebanon Escalation: Lebanon reports Israeli airstrikes, artillery shelling and drone attacks hitting towns including Arab Salim, with civilian deaths and injuries, while the fighting also threatens farmland and local industry. Iran Trade Pressure: AP reports the US is pushing countries to cut financial dealings with Iran under “Operation Economic Outcast,” after the UAE suspended trade ties—raising new uncertainty for Iran’s food and supply chains. Hormuz and Energy Costs: Oil markets react to talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Shell’s CEO warns disruptions could last longer, keeping pressure on fuel and logistics. Wheat Supply Deals (Egypt): Egypt’s GASC and Al Dahra/Abu Dhabi are moving from framework to execution on a five-year wheat supply agreement worth about $500m, aiming to stabilize import flows. Agri-Input Strain & Policy Fallout: US farm and biofuel groups urge Trump to limit expanded small refinery exemptions that could distort renewable fuel demand and crop markets. Regional Trade & Investment: China’s Xi will attend the SCO summit and visit Egypt, while Punjab invites Chinese firms to transfer production and tech—signals that industrial investment could reshape regional ag supply chains.

Iran War & Food Costs: Six months into the US-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has become the key pressure point, with higher fuel and fertilizer costs feeding into food inflation concerns across the region. Rice Supply Chain Stress: A Philippines report flags that rice input and logistics costs rose much faster than rice prices in June, widening the squeeze on farmers and the wider supply chain—linked to elevated fuel and urea prices after Middle East-linked shocks. Fertilizer Trade Watch: China is expected to ship large urea volumes to India after export-control changes, signaling easing tightness in a market that was disrupted by Hormuz-related flows. Livestock Export Compliance (UAE): South Africa extended the red-meat farm/feedlot registration deadline to Dec 31, 2026 to keep UAE-bound exports moving under VPN-59 rules. Egypt Ag Exports: Egypt added 21 new agricultural export markets in 2026, with shipments topping 5.8 million tons. Israel-Water & Farming Pressure: Reports say Israel has targeted wells and water networks in the Jordan Valley, threatening Palestinian agriculture. Drought & Inputs: Multiple pieces point to drought and high input costs straining farm cashflow and production planning.

Iran–EAEU Trade: Iran’s Trade Development Organization says trade with the Eurasian Economic Union rose 22% to $7.3bn, with agricultural goods a key export pillar and industrial-agri cooperation a focus. Syria Banking Shift: Syria’s removal from the U.S. State Sponsor of Terrorism list could unlock more SWIFT-based banking and investment flows, but officials stress compliance and financial overhauls are needed first. Fertiliser Guidance (Drought): Ireland’s Teagasc and fertilizer bodies updated drought advice, urging nitrogen spreading (15–20kg/ha) right after rain in worst-hit areas, plus slurry use before deadlines; Egypt also reports urea export declines into parts of the EU. Fuel Shock & Farm Costs: Diesel and gas price pressure is being linked to Middle East shipping disruptions, with record-low diesel inventories and refinery constraints raising costs that ripple into food and fertilizer affordability. Lebanon Farmland Damage: Lebanese officials accuse Israel of burning forests and farmland in the south, with CNRS citing large agricultural areas affected since late 2023. Trade War Spillover: U.S.–Canada tariff escalation is expected to lift prices and hit sectors including dairy and agricultural equipment, adding uncertainty for farm cashflows. Land Restoration Push: UNCCD at COP17 in Mongolia awarded restoration programmes targeting nearly 5m hectares by 2030, tying land health directly to food and water security. Agritech/Exports Under Strain: Kenya’s Kakuzi warns its avocado and macadamia profits plunged after the US–Iran war disrupted routes to Europe and demand softened.

West Bank Settlements & Land Use: Israeli PM Netanyahu vowed to keep legalising illegal West Bank outposts, citing “104 communities” and “160 farms,” as international pressure mounts—an issue that directly reshapes land access for agriculture and rural livelihoods. Lebanon Wildfires: Lebanon accused Israel of burning forest and farmland in the south, with CNRS saying Israeli activity has affected 160 sq km since 2023, half agricultural—raising fears for orchard and crop losses. Gaza Border & Farm Risk: Israel warned Gaza parents to stop kite-flying after incidents near the border revived memories of incendiary kites that sparked fires in southern Israel’s agricultural areas. Energy Shock to Food Costs: Analysts tied Strait of Hormuz disruption to higher energy bills and warned that Middle East conflict-driven fuel and power volatility can spill into food and farm input costs across import-dependent economies. Egypt–China Ag Trade: China’s Xi Jinping is set to visit Egypt as bilateral ties mark 70 years, with Egypt-China cooperation including agricultural exports—supporting regional supply chains. Restoration & Drought Resilience: UNCCD COP17 highlighted new restoration flagships (including Saudi Arabia) aimed at rebuilding degraded land to protect food systems under drought and desertification.

Early Grain Harvest Update (Ukraine): Ukraine says farmers have harvested 58% of projected early grains as of Aug. 25, with wheat at 24.61Mt (97% of area) and barley at 6.32Mt; peas are nearly complete at 297,000ha. Beef Import Push (US): Mississippi cattle groups and Farm Bureau oppose Trump’s plan to allow 300,000 metric tons of subsidized ground beef imports for 90 days, warning it could undermine a rebuilding US herd. Dairy Value Shift (Australia): Rabobank flags a protein squeeze in Australia’s dairy sector and urges “protein optimisation,” moving value from cheese toward high-protein powders, drinks and yoghurt. Iran Sanctions & Food Risks: Iran rejects the US “economic terrorism” campaign; China vows retaliation as new sanctions target shipping and supply chains—raising concerns for regional food and input costs. Gaza Kite Warnings (Food & Farmland): UN condemns Israel’s threat to expel Palestinians over kite launches, which have previously sparked fires in agricultural areas. Water Cooperation (Egypt–Ethiopia): A scholar says Ethiopia can develop Nile waters without Egypt’s permission, while cooperation remains possible. Dates & Figs Demand (Kuwait): Al-Abdali exhibition reports brisk sales of fresh local dates and figs, with some varieties selling out early.