AGP Executive Report

Gulf Security & Shipping: Bahrain says Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones toward it and Kuwait, with interceptions reported as the U.S. also shot down Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz and struck coastal radar sites—fresh escalation that keeps the corridor’s risk premium high for regional trade and farm supply chains. Food Prices & Inputs: The UN FAO reports global food prices slipped slightly in May but stayed near a three-year high, with cereals and sugar up while vegetable oils fell; the Iran-linked squeeze on fuels and fertilizers is still pushing up growing costs and raising fears of a longer “agrifood shock.” Agrifood Research Funding: The U.S. House approved more money for the US-Israel Binational Agricultural Research and Development Fund (BARD), drawing criticism that settlement-linked institutions benefit while Palestinians face restricted land and water access. Ports & Ag Trade: Oman’s ports (Sohar, Salalah, Duqm) are positioning as gateways for Indian agricultural exports after CEPA took effect, with Sohar adding a dedicated bulk agricultural terminal. Climate & Waste: Türkiye’s First Lady Emine Erdoğan urged stronger action on zero waste as climate policy, framing waste reduction as a cross-border lever ahead of COP31.

Fertilizer Pressure & Probe: The U.S. FTC has launched a major industrywide investigation into the sharp rise in fertilizer prices, with the agency pointing to fertilizer as the biggest jump in farm input costs since 2020—linked to Middle East-driven disruptions. Trade Relief for Farm Inputs: The Trump administration cut tariffs on agricultural equipment (including harvesters) and other heavy machinery to 15% from 25%, aiming to ease cost pressure as Iran-related energy shocks keep squeezing supply chains. Lebanon Humanitarian Strain: The UN doubled its Lebanon aid appeal by $331.5m to $639.9m total, warning food security is deteriorating for 1.24m people as conflict damages clinics and agricultural livelihoods. Iraq Roads for Trade & Farming: The World Bank approved a $900m package to upgrade Iraq and Kurdistan road corridors, targeting safer transport and better links between population centers, industrial and agricultural areas. Fuel Support for Specialist Horticulture: Ireland opened a Fuel Support Scheme for specialist horticulture growers, offering a once-off payment to offset fuel spikes for crops like tomatoes, cucumbers, strawberries and hydroponic lettuce.

Strait of Hormuz & Food Costs: The OECD warns the Persian Gulf conflict is already hurting global growth and could push economies into recession if disruptions persist into 2027, with energy and fertiliser shocks feeding inflation and weakening food security. Dairy Profit Pressure: New Zealand’s DairyNZ says high input costs tied to Hormuz disruptions are squeezing the 2026/27 season, even as farmgate milk prices are revised upward in scenarios depending on when the strait reopens. Biofuels vs Food: A thinktank warns biofuel demand could surge as oil nears $100, adding “food for fuel” pressure on prices and raising the risk of a wider food crisis. Egypt Agribusiness Finance: Credit Agricole Egypt launched a 12-month interest-free “Break” installment offer for cardholders, supporting consumer spending during a period of broader cost pressures. Trade & Investment: Vietnam and Egypt are accelerating work on a joint action programme under their upgraded comprehensive partnership, with a focus on expanding cooperation mechanisms. Climate-Resilient Farming Tech: A US-Israel grant backs Ayana Bio and Brevel to scale illuminated fermentation for plant-cell bioactives, aiming to support food and wellness supply chains.

Aquaculture Trade Boost: Egypt received EU approval to export farmed fish products, with the NFSA citing upgrades to residue controls and compliance; shipments are expected to start in Q3 2026. Regional Food Security & Growth: A summit discussion flagged Africa’s big aquaculture potential, noting the continent currently produces under 2% of global output despite strong seafood demand and large import bills. Input Costs & Inflation Pressure: A new UCLA Anderson Forecast says the Iran-related oil shock has replaced tariffs as the main inflation risk, with knock-on effects for households and logistics-heavy economies like California. Farmer Stress From War-Driven Prices: In the Philippines, the agriculture department defended pork import allocation increases, linking the move to ASF outbreak risk and Middle East-driven inflation pressures. Climate Risk Management: Turkmenistan held a Murgab Basin roundtable on climate adaptation, focusing on water management, disaster preparedness, and cross-agency coordination. One Health Focus: Central Asia reviewed progress on a One Health pandemic preparedness project spanning health, veterinary, and environmental sectors.

Türkiye Fisheries: Türkiye’s total fishery production rose 11.1% in 2025 to over 1 million tons, with aquaculture the main driver (60.4% of output). Marine capture climbed 17.3% while inland capture fell 4.3%, led by anchovies in marine catches. Gaza & Farmland Risk: Israeli attacks in Gaza killed at least eight people, with strikes hitting residential buildings and Al-Shati camp; the wider conflict continues to disrupt food and rural livelihoods. Monsoon Watch: India’s southwest monsoon has reached Kerala, three days late, a key signal for rainfall-dependent farming across roughly half of India’s cultivated area. Fertiliser & Energy Shock: As the Iran war drags on, analysts warn Hormuz reopening won’t quickly normalize energy and supply chains, keeping fertilizer and diesel costs elevated and squeezing farm margins. El Niño Dryness: Dry weather and an expected strong El Niño are already disrupting crop planting across Asia, compounding fertilizer and diesel shortages tied to the Iran war. Yemen Farm Support: Saudi KSrelief signed a deal to back farmers in Yemen’s Hadhramaut and Socotra, supporting 800 people directly under the Bathraa Initiative. Agritech for Inputs: Precision agriculture drone and farm equipment rental markets are expanding, reflecting farmers’ push to manage costs and improve productivity amid volatility.

Fertilizer shock and planting shifts: A University of Illinois farm specialist warns that Middle East-driven fuel and fertilizer costs (with some fertilizers projected above $1,000/ton) will squeeze 2027 budgets, pushing farmers to consider more soybean acres as corn returns look weaker. Iran war at the farm gate: Multiple reports link the Iran conflict to higher input costs and food insecurity pressures, with farmers seeking fertilizer alternatives as chemical prices surge. Pest threat to crops: Moroccan locust swarms are reported in eastern Iran, threatening grain and orchard crops and potentially livestock feed supplies, as authorities spray and urge harvest caution. Food security cooperation: Israel and Albania signed a new agriculture and food-security agreement, including innovation and knowledge transfer plus foreign-worker solutions for Israel’s farm sector. Wheat modernization in Uzbekistan: CIMMYT and Uzbekistan launched the bridge phase of a wheat innovation initiative to tackle rust, soil-borne disease and Fusarium head blight, strengthening long-term food security. Trade and market pressure: South Africa’s Grain SA moves toward legal action over delayed wheat tariff implementation, arguing subsidised imports are still undercutting local producers. Energy-cost ripple: Oil prices rose again on renewed US-Iran tensions, reinforcing the broader cost pressure hitting agriculture through fuel and logistics.

Food Security & Livestock: Qatar’s Ministry of Municipality licensed 45 livestock and animal production projects in 2025 (meat, dairy, poultry and eggs), aiming to boost domestic output and cut import reliance. Water & Fisheries: Iraq’s Tigris River is seeing a major fish die-off in Wasit, with farmers blaming upstream contamination, untreated discharges and weak water governance that’s spreading damage across provinces. Fertiliser & Farm Costs: DairyNZ warns Middle East-linked Strait of Hormuz disruption is lifting fertiliser, feed, fuel and interest costs, pushing up breakeven milk prices while squeezing operating profit. Agri-Trade & Investment: Dubai Chambers discussed expanding trade ties with South Africa’s Western Cape, flagging opportunities in agri-processing and related sectors. Horticulture Research: Southern Cross unveiled a landmark national research strategy for organic horticulture, targeting supply gaps (including berries, avocados and fresh vegetables) and export growth into Asia and the Middle East. Agricultural Finance: Egypt’s IFAP reported 63.5% YoY net profit growth in FY2025/26’s first nine months, supported by higher sales. Energy Shock at the Farm Gate: Reports link Middle East conflict and Hormuz disruption to higher fuel and logistics costs that are starting to hit grocery supply chains and prices.

Fertiliser Supply & Prices: Oman’s OMIFCO plans a Muscat IPO offering a 25% stake, banking on strong ammonia/urea demand as Middle East conflict keeps fertiliser prices elevated. Livestock Health: South Africa’s agriculture ministry says it has procured 13.5m FMD vaccine doses and vaccinated 4.4m animals, with more shipments (including Dunevax) approved to speed boosters. Food Security & Aid: Qatar Charity distributed food baskets in Somalia under its “The Greatest Days” campaign, reaching 1,854 people across Yemeni, Syrian, Sudanese and Somali IDP communities. Climate Risk: The UN weather agency warns El Niño could be moderate to strong, raising the odds of drought, heavy rain and heatwaves—bad news for farm planning across the region. Water & Farm Access: Displaced Alawi farmers in Syria fear they’ll lose livelihoods again as land disputes and state-managed agricultural control delay access ahead of the pistachio season. Trade & Logistics: Kuwait approved the first phase of a Kuwait–Saudi Gulf railway link, aiming to cut logistics friction and support GCC supply chains.

Fertiliser squeeze from West Asia conflict: Iran war-linked logistics and price spikes are pushing farmers to seek alternatives, while India’s fertilizer dependence on Gulf supply (including Hormuz routes) is raising costs and subsidy pressure. Climate risk for crops: The UN warns El Niño is likely to return soon, bringing harsher swings of drought and heavy rain—an added threat for already cost-stressed producers. Water shocks hitting farms: Syria’s Euphrates flooding is damaging farmland and forcing families to flee, while earlier reports also flagged drought and reduced flows disrupting cultivation. Livestock cooperation push: India urged BRICS knowledge-sharing to tackle animal disease and feed shortages, aiming for more resilient livestock systems. Occupied West Bank farm damage: Israeli settler arson and grazing attacks are torching olive groves and damaging crops, worsening losses for Palestinian farmers. Iraq development plan includes ag: Iraq’s private sector is projected to invest about $65bn (2024-2028) across infrastructure and food security, with agriculture among priority sectors.

Fertilizer shock from Iran war: Farmers across the region are being pushed toward costly substitutes as chemical fertilizer prices surge and supply tightens, with reports pointing to shifts toward organic options like compost and manure. Water risk for food security: A water expert warns salinization from saltwater intrusion and overused groundwater could trigger crop failures and wider migration pressures, especially in vulnerable coastal areas. Livestock disease response: South Africa is accelerating its foot-and-mouth disease vaccination drive, with 13.5 million vaccine doses procured since February and nearly 4.4 million animals vaccinated by May 28, including new consignments planned from Turkey. Fertilizer and fuel affordability crunch: Ireland’s fuel support scheme is seeing “extremely poor” uptake, leaving many small-to-medium farmers effectively excluded as rebate thresholds don’t match real-world purchasing. Regional ag trade and inputs: Egypt is pushing deeper Africa–Korea cooperation tied to food, water, energy and technology transfer, while Jordan’s Arab Potash and Bromine projects aim to expand fertiliser-linked output for global food security. Crop and export updates: Kazakhstan’s Turkistan region reports strong melon and watermelon harvests with exports underway, and Egypt’s garlic exports to the EU nearly doubled in 2025. Market pressure signals: Consumer confidence is slipping alongside rising credit-card debt, reflecting broader cost-of-living strain that can hit food demand.

Fertilizer Pressure in the Region: Iran war-linked input price spikes are pushing farmers to seek substitutes like compost and cow dung, while global food security groups warn of a wider crisis. Water & Land Security: Türkiye says per-capita renewable water availability has fallen below the 1,700 m³ threshold, and it’s also moving to modernize irrigation and cut irrigation losses. Iraq Livestock Disease Controls: Wasit province orders livestock border closures unless veterinary requirements are met to curb Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever spread. Trade Moves for Agri-Exports: Kazakhstan reports a 97% jump in agricultural exports to Iran, including doubled grain exports; and India-Oman CEPA takes effect, granting duty-free access for many agriculture and processed food lines. Energy Costs Hitting Farms: With Middle East oil-flow risks, grain and oilseed markets are reacting, and biofuel demand is pulling more crops toward fuel use—raising pressure on farm margins. On-the-Ground Farm Resilience: UK arable farmers are urged to cut harvest energy waste via smarter grain drying and cooling controls. Aquaculture Push: Türkiye plans to expand endangered sturgeon production and scale “Turkish caviar” exports. Market Calendar: Iraq’s stock exchange will pause for Eid al-Ghadir, affecting trading across sectors including agriculture.

Fertilizer Shock and Food Prices: With the Iran war still disrupting fertilizer supply chains, farmers across the region are being pushed toward substitutes and lower-input methods, while households face higher costs—one analysis estimates poorer families could pay up to ₱490.8 more per month for rice as urea prices nearly double. Regulatory Push: South Africa’s agriculture minister urged SADC to harmonise fertilizer rules to cut registration bottlenecks and stabilize availability and affordability, warning fragmented standards leave farmers exposed to external shocks. UAE Desert Ag Innovation: An Emirati grower in Al Ain is using worm castings and farm-waste recycling to propagate and graft non-native fruit varieties suited to UAE conditions, turning a desert plot into a small experimental orchard. Biodiversity and Farm Resilience: Abu Dhabi is tagging 100,000 native trees digitally to improve monitoring and protection of key species like ghaf and sidr—efforts that support healthier ecosystems around farms. Gaza Ceasefire Violations: Israeli strikes and demolitions continue despite the ceasefire, adding pressure to already fragile food and livelihoods in Gaza.

Input Costs & Inflation Spillover: India’s finance ministry warned fuel hikes and a weaker-than-normal monsoon could push retail inflation higher, with food and transport costs likely to feed through as Middle East-linked energy disruptions continue. Water & Flood Risk: Syria’s Euphrates flooding is displacing families and threatening farmland after authorities opened more spillway gates; officials cite upstream warnings and emergency measures to manage flows. Fertiliser Shock Watch: Global bodies warn the Hormuz crisis is draining oil inventories and could trigger a fertiliser price shock, while farmers across the region brace for higher costs and tighter supply. Market Signals (Ag Futures): Cotton futures closed mixed as traders weighed export sales and Iran-deal uncertainty; corn and soybeans also softened on month-end positioning and weaker export momentum. Land, Forests & Rural Livelihoods: Israel designated eight forests as natural reserves near the northern border, tightening protection and land-use planning. West Bank Farm Safety: Settler attacks damaged Palestinian homes, vehicles and agricultural land in the West Bank, adding pressure to rural livelihoods during Eid al-Adha. Lebanon Escalation: Lebanon’s PM warned of dangerous Israeli escalation as strikes near the Beaufort castle prompted evacuation warnings—raising risks for farming communities in southern areas.

Euphrates Flooding: Syria’s Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa were hit by Euphrates flooding after dam discharge gates were opened, displacing about 2,400 families and damaging homes, farmland and water facilities. Fertiliser & Energy Shock: Global economic bodies warned that Strait of Hormuz disruptions are draining oil inventories and pushing up fuel and fertiliser costs, with knock-on risks for food security and jobs across vulnerable economies. Input Costs for Farmers: In the US, Senator Tammy Baldwin met farmers on how Iran-war-linked shipping disruptions are driving diesel and fertiliser price spikes, squeezing already thin margins. Egypt Sugar Investment: IFC signed a $40m loan to Nile Sugar for sugar beet cultivation on 5,713 hectares in Minya, aiming to cut Egypt’s sugar import bill and support self-sufficiency. Hydroponics in Egypt: Miyāh Farm near Cairo is scaling B2B hydroponic matcha and produce for hotels and restaurants, betting on controlled yields amid climate pressure. Seed Sovereignty Push: Arunachal Pradesh’s seed festival backed indigenous seed protection and climate-resilient livelihoods, spotlighting “seed sovereignty” as a policy priority. UAE Agri-Tech & Water: UAE startup Meyahh is using a digital B2B platform to help SMEs in water treatment access suppliers and project work across Egypt and beyond.

Fertilizer Pressure Across the Region: The Middle East conflict is still reverberating through farm inputs and prices, with reports pointing to tight global fertilizer markets and lingering supply and pricing concerns into fall, while the U.S. FTC moves to investigate surging fertilizer prices. Monsoon Risk for Food Security: India’s IMD downgraded its monsoon outlook to below-normal rainfall, raising farm and food-bill worries; the forecast shift matters for regional grain planning and input demand. Syria Floods Disrupt Farming: Syria’s president visited Euphrates flood zones after days of mayhem; homes, farms, and crossings were hit, with alerts also issued in Iraq and water stations affected. Water Cooperation Focus: Central Asia’s water and climate resilience discussions highlighted how rainfall shocks hit incomes and food security, and pushed for stronger transboundary water cooperation. Regional Food Security Coordination: SADC ministers urged tighter collaboration to boost crop and livestock output and fisheries, warning that Middle East-driven disruptions to energy and fertilizer supply are compounding climate and disease risks. Agriculture Under Conflict Strain: A Lebanon-focused piece underscores how war is dismantling food systems—cutting access to land and water and breaking supply chains.

Fuel & Fertiliser Pressure: The US FTC opened a formal investigation into surging fertiliser prices after Iran-war supply shocks, as farmers face squeezed margins and a fourth year of shrinking profitability. Input-Cost Relief Debate: In India, opposition leaders urged Maharashtra to cut state VAT and fuel surcharges, blaming Iran-driven crude spikes for higher diesel/petrol costs that hit transport and farm-linked logistics. Monsoon Risk for Crops: India’s IMD warned the 2026 southwest monsoon is likely below average (about 90% of the long-period average), with heatwave risk rising—an early warning for water-hungry planting. Water Stress in the Levant: Flooding in north and east Syria as Euphrates levels rise is damaging homes and crossings, raising fresh pressure on rural livelihoods. Regional Food-Security Backdrop: An AfDB outlook projects Africa growth at 4.2% in 2026 but flags inflation and higher import costs tied to Middle East disruptions, hitting low-ag productivity countries hardest. Harvest Rescue in Asia: Central China’s wheat harvest was saved after rainstorms, with thousands of machines rushing to beat mould and sprouting risks. Agritech for Drought: Saudi-linked Almarai launched its 2026 food-security research prize focused on dryland solutions, backing innovation to improve resilience where water is scarce.