AGP Executive Report

Food Security Shock: Health workers in northern Nigeria say children are relapsing into malnutrition as the Iran-linked fuel and food price surge hits already fragile households, with aid groups warning fertilizer shortages could worsen the planting season. Agriculture Under Fire: In the West Bank, Israeli forces and settlers are linked to arson incidents near Hebron, including damage tied to a farm fire that triggered evacuations and smoke injuries—raising risks for rural livelihoods. Lebanon Farm Damage: Reports from southern Lebanon describe Israeli strikes and artillery plus roadside tree-cutting, with attacks near the Bayt al-Sayyad farm and other towns—an escalating threat to local farming and land. Energy Prices, Global Spillovers: The IMF downgraded the 2026 growth outlook to 3%, blaming the Iran conflict for higher oil prices, trade disruption, and renewed inflation pressure that hits import-dependent economies hardest. Water & Agrifood Resilience: With desalination and water security in focus amid regional tensions, the week’s coverage underscores how water infrastructure and energy costs are now tightly linked to food production stability. UAE Date Palm Innovation: Abu Dhabi Heritage Authority launched a project to document new date palm varieties, aiming to standardize cultivation and preserve agricultural heritage through scientific cataloguing.

Middle East macro shock: The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3% and blamed higher oil prices and trade disruption from the Iran conflict, warning energy costs will keep inflation sticky and hit food and farm inputs across import-dependent economies. Iraq–Türkiye oil logistics: Iraq and Türkiye are nearing a one-year renewal of their 1973 crude pipeline deal, a reminder that energy routing shifts can quickly ripple into regional supply chains that farmers rely on. Gaza farm recovery under pressure: UN agencies say Palestinian farmers are trying to restart production after war damage, but they still need seeds, tools, fertilizer and water, while access is squeezed by ongoing aggression. Lebanon farm safety under strikes: Reports from southern Lebanon describe repeated Israeli strikes and shelling, including near farms, raising risks for rural livelihoods and crop protection. Pakistan–Iran trade push: FPCCI urged private firms to move beyond “conventional trade” and build industrial partnerships, targeting $10bn annual trade—potentially relevant for agricultural machinery and inputs. Qatar ag tech model: A report highlights how Qatar is using smart agriculture and controlled-environment systems to keep food production going despite extreme heat and scarce arable land. Water stress in Iran: After US strikes hit a desalination plant, thousands in southern Iran faced drinking-water outages, underscoring how water disruptions can quickly become farm and food-security problems. Regional crop diversification: In Khulna, off-season watermelon cultivation is expanding with extension support, offering farmers a faster, higher-value income option.

Iran–US Strikes and Gulf Water Risk: Iranian attacks damaged a Kuwait desalination plant, underlining how Gulf drinking water depends on vulnerable coastal infrastructure. Trade and Energy Routes: Turkey and Iraq are close to renewing a one-year extension of their 1973 crude pipeline deal, a key alternative as Hormuz disruptions reshape oil flows. Iraq–US Business Push: Iraq’s PM oversaw 48 MoUs with US firms worth $60bn+, including pipeline work tied to Mediterranean routes. Egypt Water Skills: Egypt will open five Egyptian-Italian applied technology schools focused on water resources and irrigation, training for pumping, water treatment and desalination. Egypt Animal Health Misinformation: An Agriculture Ministry official denied claims of “50 million dogs,” stressing a unified, long-term stray animal management plan. Pakistan–Iran Commerce: Pakistan’s business lobby says Pak–Iran trade could reach $10bn annually with better banking and cross-border procedures. Weather Watch: Pakistan’s PMD forecasts widespread monsoon rains, windstorms and thundershowers from July 18–25, with flood and landslide risks. Poultry Export Outlook: Indonesia is exploring poultry exports to China and the Middle East to absorb domestic oversupply.

Desert Locust Preparedness: Bahrain will host the 34th session of the regional desert locust control commission in December, with officials pushing for early-warning systems, better data sharing, and stronger monitoring and response capacity. Middle East Conflict & Food Supply Risk: AP reports US-Iran strikes hitting bridges and a desalination plant, underscoring how the war is disrupting water and logistics—key inputs for agriculture and rural livelihoods. EU vs Settlements: The EU warned Israel against further settlement expansion in the West Bank, saying it entrenches communities and raises risks of human-rights violations—an issue that also affects farming access and reconstruction. Fertilizer/Cost Pressure from Oil: Diesel prices jumped in Pakistan and the wider region as Gulf tensions and shipping disruptions tighten supply, raising transport and farm machinery costs. Agriculture Trade Links: India and the EU renewed cooperation through the India-EU Trade and Technology Council, including resilient supply chains and clean-energy collaboration that can support agri trade and processing. Water Vulnerability: The Kuwait desalination hit highlights how conflict-driven infrastructure damage can quickly translate into water stress for food production. Pakistan Agriculture Reform Context: Pakistan’s PM urged participants in a scholars program to support reforms including agricultural development and productivity. Crop Loss Signal: A Michigan frost story shows how extreme weather can wipe out orchard output and still leave growers maintaining trees for next season.

Animal Health & Trade: Nigeria reaffirmed its push to eradicate Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) by 2030, citing surveillance, lab upgrades, outbreak response and targeted vaccination to cut losses and unlock wider livestock trade. Livestock Traceability: Kenya’s ANITRAC digital livestock IDs are being rolled out to prove origin and health status for premium buyers in Europe and the Middle East. Fertiliser Market Pressure: Yara warned volatile nitrogen prices and delayed farmer buying, with Iran-related shipping disruptions tightening supplies and raising costs. Agri-Exports & Inputs: Turkey’s tea exports topped $17.5m in the first half, with Rize driving nearly half the revenue and the industry targeting new Gulf and North America markets. Food Supply Chain Risk: A new report flags rapid growth in food traceability tech demand, as buyers increasingly expect end-to-end tracking. Conflict Spillover: Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions around Hormuz are again raising energy and fertiliser risks that can feed through to farm input costs and food prices across the region. Water & Infrastructure: Iraq and Türkiye are nearing a one-year renewal of their 1973 crude pipeline deal, a reminder how logistics continuity matters for regional supply chains.

Gaza Agriculture Under Fire: UN says military activity in Gaza is driving more displacement, while FAO scaled up cash support for 1,500 Palestinian farmers to plant during the 2026 season, aiming to boost vegetable output for vulnerable communities. Fertilizer Pressure: U.S. corn growers urge a faster DOJ probe into fertilizer industry practices, warning that high input costs—worsened by Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions—could push the ag economy toward collapse. Jordan Valley Security Meets Farming: Israel handed Jordan Valley farms drones and rangers to deter “terror” threats, framing the move as protection against weapons smuggling linked to Iran-backed networks. Fuel Costs Ripple to Farms: Reuters reports U.S. refiner margins hit record highs as Iran-war tensions tighten diesel supplies, lifting fuel prices that can squeeze farm budgets. Iraq-Türkiye Oil Route: Iraq and Türkiye near a one-year renewal of the 1973 crude pipeline deal, a reminder that alternative export routes matter when Hormuz is disrupted. Policy Watch (US): House Budget Committee advanced a $95B reconciliation framework including $12B for agriculture and election-related funding, setting up further political fights that can affect farm support. Water Stress in Jordan: Wadi Musa highlights climate-driven pressure on water and agricultural lands tied to Ain Musa.

Fertiliser & fuel shock from Iran war: The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3% and warned that renewed conflict is pushing oil higher, reigniting inflation and disrupting trade—an energy squeeze that hits food and farm inputs hardest. Egypt–Ethiopia water stress: Egypt’s Nile dispute with Ethiopia is being overshadowed by wider Horn of Africa tensions, with Cairo warning drought could threaten downstream water and agricultural jobs. Egypt farm push: Egypt’s PM Mostafa Madbouly said the agricultural sector is undergoing an “unprecedented” transformation to boost livestock and exports, with continued project inspections in Giza and Beheira. Turkey export targeting: Türkiye’s agriculture ministry identified new export markets for Turkish farm and food products, urging less reliance on a few destinations as demand shifts toward organic, traceable goods. Organic apricots to UAE: APEDA facilitated the first 5-tonne organic apricot shipment from Ladakh to the UAE, adding to earlier mango exports and aiming to lift farmers’ incomes. Market risk from Hormuz: Malaysia urged businesses not to underestimate supply-chain and food-price impacts after renewed Hormuz closure warnings. Bioeconomy momentum (India): A new push for India’s bioeconomy highlights scaling biologicals in agriculture alongside bioenergy to improve outcomes like cleaner air and safer food.

Desertification & Water Tech: Qatar says it’s stepping up action against desertification with afforestation, drought-tolerant crops, water-saving irrigation and land rehabilitation under Qatar National Vision 2030. Lebanon Farm Recovery: Lebanon’s agriculture is still reeling after Israeli attacks damaged about 22.5% of agricultural land (56,000 hectares), but Saudi’s move to resume Lebanese imports is giving farmers a route back to Gulf markets. Fertilizer & Fuel Shock: Renewed US-Iran conflict around the Strait of Hormuz is pushing up energy costs and raising fears of higher fertilizer prices, with farmers facing tougher purchasing decisions for next season. EU Heat Risk Research: A new study warns that climate models can reproduce heatwaves once they start, but often miss the early atmospheric signals that build dangerous conditions across the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. Trade & Logistics Resilience: DP World says multinationals are shifting inventory from a single Gulf hub to India satellite distribution sites to reduce disruption risk during West Asia crises. Egypt Peace Push: Egypt’s PM Madbouly reiterated that ending regional conflicts is key to economic recovery, including for agricultural and livestock projects. Qumran Calendar Breakthrough: Tel Aviv University researchers propose Qumran’s 364-day calendar was used in early years, linking it to the sect’s astronomy and calendar disputes. Horticulture Exports: Ladakh flagged off its first apricot export consignment (5 tonnes) to the UAE, aiming to lift farmers’ incomes and scale organic variety exports. Input Cost Pressure: EU moves to approve aid for farmers facing soaring fertilizer costs, as the Iran-driven supply strain keeps pressure on prices. Iraq-Türkiye Oil Pipeline: Baghdad and Ankara near a one-year renewal of the 1973 crude pipeline deal, reinforcing an alternative export route as Hormuz shipping remains disrupted.

Iran–US Strikes and Food/Water Risk: Iran says US attacks hit civilian infrastructure in Khuzestan and Ilam, including a wheat storage silo and agricultural water pumping, raising fears for regional food and water security. Energy Shock to Agriculture: The Hormuz dispute is keeping oil volatile and pushing up costs that ripple into fertilizer and farm inputs, while the IMF warns the Iran conflict has darkened the global growth outlook. Iraq–Türkiye Oil Pipeline Extension: Iraq and Türkiye are close to renewing a one-year extension of the 1973 Kirkuk–Ceyhan crude pipeline, a key alternative route as Hormuz disruptions persist. Egypt–World Bank Push for Food Security: Egypt’s PM seeks expanded World Bank cooperation across water, agriculture, and food security to support reforms and resilience. Fertilizer Relief, Fungicide Surge: With urea prices reportedly falling sharply and subsidies improving access, growers get short-term relief, but wet weather is driving a spike in fungicide demand. Türkiye Policy Roadmap: A 600-academic report will launch with recommendations spanning agriculture and water management, aiming to guide policy responses to national challenges. Armenia Digital Boost for Farming: Viva launches Armenia’s 5G+ network across major regions, supporting digital services that can underpin smarter agriculture. Sharjah Land Use Signals: Sharjah real estate transactions rose in H1, with agricultural properties still tiny—useful context for how land and investment priorities may shape future ag space.

Iran War & Food Costs: The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3% and warned the Iran conflict is pushing up oil, disrupting trade, and reigniting inflation—pressures that can hit fertilizer and farm input affordability across the Middle East and beyond. GCC-EU Diplomacy: GCC leaders urged a “new phase” in GCC-EU relations, citing Iran’s escalation, energy-facility attacks, and Strait of Hormuz disruption as drivers of wider market instability. Hormuz Shock to Supply Chains: Oil prices jumped as shipping risk rose and the US moved to reinstate a naval blockade; analysts warned fertilizer flows and commodity costs could stay volatile. Iraq-Türkiye Oil Route: Baghdad and Ankara are close to renewing a one-year extension of the 1973 Iraq–Türkiye crude pipeline deal, a key northern export lifeline as Hormuz shipping faces disruption. Gaza Aid Disrupted: UN agencies reported intensified Israeli military activity near Rafah’s “Yellow Line,” disrupting humanitarian services and causing casualties among displaced people. Sudan Hunger Watch: WFP warned Sudan’s hunger crisis is deepening amid conflict, aid cuts, and higher agricultural costs linked to wider regional disruption.

West Bank Land & Water Pressure: Israel finalized an 8.5 billion shekel framework deal to expand illegal West Bank settlements by 12,000 housing units, with rights groups warning of rising attacks on Palestinian communities, including assaults on agricultural land and property. Iraq–Türkiye Oil Route: Ankara and Baghdad are close to renewing a one-year extension of the 1973 Iraq–Türkiye crude pipeline deal, a key alternative route as Hormuz disruptions push Iraq to reroute exports. Water for Crops in Central Asia: Kazakhstan reports 5.9 billion cubic meters withdrawn since the start of the irrigation season, irrigating 701,000 hectares, with plans for 11 billion cubic meters to cover 1.2 million hectares. Egypt Rural Development: Egypt’s agriculture minister met FAO to align support for the “Productive Village Revival” initiative, including village branding, contract farming, mechanization, livestock upgrades, and stronger cooperatives. Hormuz Shock to Food & Inputs: The US reinstated a naval blockade and proposed a 20% cargo fee for Strait of Hormuz transit, keeping oil prices elevated and raising risks for fertilizer and food costs across the region. Global Macro Spillover: The IMF downgraded 2026 global growth to 3% and warned Iran-linked conflict is lifting energy costs and reigniting inflation, hitting import-dependent economies hardest.

Hormuz Tolls & Shipping Risk: Trump says the US will “guardian” the Strait of Hormuz and charge a 20% toll on eligible cargo, after renewed US-Iran strikes—an escalation that immediately pushed oil prices up and threatens trade costs that ripple into food and farm inputs. Gaza Food System Under Strain: The EU launched a €1bn “Team Gaza Initiative” for early recovery, explicitly targeting water, sanitation, health, energy, and agriculture/food systems as Gaza’s food and safety net face collapse warnings. Livestock Feed Costs Soar in Gaza: FAO says animal feed entry was last permitted on June 4; since early February, feed prices in local markets have doubled or tripled, undermining livestock survival gains. Fertiliser Pressure in the Region: WTO warns the Iran war has severely disrupted fertilizer trade; with energy and logistics hit, fertilizer availability and pricing remain a major Middle East farm risk. Water & Agriculture in Conflict Zones: Reports highlight Israeli attacks damaging water and agricultural assets, while UN-linked accounts describe barriers and violence that also disrupt access to work and farming. Ethiopia Credit Cap Lifted: Ethiopia removed a commercial bank credit growth cap to support inflation control while preserving growth—important for financing agriculture and rural businesses.

Global Macro Shock for Food: The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3% and warned that the Iran conflict is pushing up oil, disrupting trade, and reigniting inflation—bad news for food affordability and farm input costs. Fertilizer & Gas Link: A new analysis highlights how fertilizer depends on cheap gas (Haber-Bosch), warning that even small nitrogen cuts or gas disruptions can trigger outsized crop losses. Middle East Water Under Fire: Iran says US strikes hit agricultural water pumping stations in Khuzestan, threatening irrigation and drainage operations that farmers rely on. Energy-Agri Pressure: Economists warn a “super” El Niño could drive severe weather and extend global food price stress into 2028, compounding war-related shipping and fertilizer disruptions. Regional Ag Finance: Ecobank listed a US$450m Sustainable Agriculture & Natural Capital bond to fund primary production, ag-processing, and water/sanitation lending across 24 markets. Iraq–Türkiye Oil Continuity: Baghdad and Ankara near a one-year extension of the 1973 crude pipeline deal, a reminder that energy logistics still matter for regional food and farming stability.

Lebanon Agriculture Hit: Israeli shelling and drone incendiaries struck southern Lebanon, burning over 100 dunams of agricultural land and damaging orchards near Tyre, with civil defense teams working for hours to contain fires. Iraq Water for Farming: Iraq says strategic water reserves rebounded to 34 billion cubic meters after historic lows in early 2026, but officials warn sustainable management is still critical for the next agricultural cycle. Iraq Farm Crackdown: Anti-corruption “Dawn Crackdown” reached rural assets as security forces inspected and sealed a farm tied to detained former lawmaker Talal al-Zobaie, seizing livestock including buffaloes, sheep, ostriches and poultry. EU Settlement Trade Pressure: EU foreign ministers are set to discuss reducing trade with Israeli settlements, targeting the bloc’s role as a major market for settlement-produced fruits and vegetables. Afghanistan–India Ag Ties: Afghanistan’s Taliban agriculture minister met Indian counterparts to expand cooperation on irrigation, livestock, seed systems and climate-resilient crops. Middle East Input Cost Risk: Renewed Gulf tensions are keeping refined fuel prices tight, raising fears of higher fertilizer and farming input costs across the region.

West Bank Land Access: Israel issued 49 military orders since January restricting use of 2,093 dunams (517 acres) of privately owned Palestinian land, limiting farming and even tree work, with restrictions concentrated near settlements, roads, the barrier and military sites. Iraq–Türkiye Oil Route: Baghdad and Ankara are close to a one-year renewal of the 1973 Iraq–Türkiye crude pipeline deal, a key northern export lifeline as Hormuz-linked shipping disruptions push Iraq toward overland trucking. Egypt Sugar Push: Egypt was ranked Africa’s top sugar producer in an OECD-FAO outlook, citing government support, better seeds, and expanded factory capacity, including the Canal Sugar Factory. Fertiliser Cost Pressure: The EU moved to accelerate CAP changes to help farmers cope with soaring fertiliser prices, including allowing unused rural funds for fertiliser aid and earlier payments. Climate Shock Risk: Economists warn a “super” El Niño could drive a global food price shock lasting into 2028, compounding current price stress tied to the Iran war and extreme weather. Saudi Agritourism: Aseer’s Al-Wadi Resort opened a 120-metre fountain as part of a wider tourism-and-agriculture project under Vision 2030.

Egypt Export Push: Egypt says agricultural exports topped 5.8 million tonnes since the start of 2026, led by citrus (over 2.2m tonnes), potatoes (over 908,000), sweet potatoes (~218,000), grapes (147,000), beans (125,000), onions (123,000), plus strawberries, garlic and tomatoes—while officials work to open more markets with strict phytosanitary rules. Fuel Shock for Farms: Russia’s diesel export ban is tightening global fuel supplies and lifting diesel prices, a direct hit to farm operations and freight—diesel is also central to electricity generation and industrial activity. Iran War Pressure on Inputs: Middle East conflict is again stressing farmers through higher energy and fertilizer costs, with shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz raising uncertainty and prices for key inputs like urea. Iraq–Türkiye Oil Route Update: Iraq and Türkiye are nearing a one-year renewal of their 1973 crude pipeline deal (Kirkuk to Ceyhan), a reminder that regional logistics shifts can quickly reshape supply chains. Local Value-Add in Egypt: An EU/UNDP technical assistance programme is about a quarter complete on four local development projects aimed at boosting processing, packaging and marketing for dates, olives and other agricultural products to cut post-harvest losses. West Bank Farm Damage: Reports say Israeli settlers attacked Palestinian municipal workers and destroyed farm infrastructure near Nablus, with livestock grazing damaging crops and trees.